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17:18
May 28
May 28
Macro Voices
6d
URA
WTI
▾
HIGH
Long URA bull call spread
The energy crisis from the Strait of Hormuz closure will accelerate the global shift away from vulnerable hydrocarbon supply chains toward nuclear power and the uranium fuel cycle. A bull call spread on the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) offers a defined-risk, asymmetric way to express this longer-term energy security theme.
URA LONG
Buy crude oil on weakness
The selloff in crude oil is overdone due to excessive optimism over a quick resolution of the Strait of Hormuz closure. Inventories will need to be replenished even after a deal, and oil is likely to trade back toward $100+. Therefore, buying dips on weakness is a favorable risk/reward.
WTI LONG
HIGH
17:12
May 28
May 28
Macro Voices
6d
URA
WTI
▾
HIGH
Uranium bull call spread for transition.
Long-term energy security transition toward nuclear power and the uranium fuel cycle will gain traction. A bull call spread on URA (Global X Uranium ETF) provides asymmetric risk-reward with defined downside risk and 3.5:1 upside if the theme continues to reprice.
URA LONG
Buy oil dips for tight market.
Oil markets will remain tight due to the Strait of Hormuz closure and the need for inventory replenishment. The recent weakness driven by optimism on a resolution is a buying opportunity, with crude likely to trade back toward $100+.
WTI LONG
HIGH
14:41
May 28
May 28
Macro Voices
6d
WTI
URA
▾
HIGH
Buy crude oil on dips
Despite the recent selloff on optimism over an Iran deal, the Strait of Hormuz closure is unlikely to resolve soon. Inventories are being drawn down and demand destruction will require higher oil prices. Patrick recommends buying dips in crude oil, targeting a return to $100+.
WTI LONG
Buy URA bull call spread
The energy crisis from the Strait of Hormuz closure may accelerate a shift from hydrocarbon dependence toward nuclear power and small modular reactors. The URA ETF provides exposure to uranium miners and the nuclear fuel cycle. Using a bull call spread with Jan 2027 options offers asymmetric risk/reward with a net debit of $2.20 and max profit of $7.80.
URA LONG
HIGH
18:11
May 21
May 21
Macro Voices
13d
XES
GLD
XLE 1ST
US Dollar Index (DXY)
WTI
▾
HIGH
Long XES call for energy rebuild.
Position for the energy resilience rebuild via oil field services. The XES ETF has already rallied 72% YTD but remains a way to play the long-term aftermath. Use a Dec 18 2026 $135 call option to define risk while maintaining upside exposure, with flexibility to roll down if a peace headline causes a correction.
XES LONG
Avoid gold short-term, wait for bottom.
Gold is in a corrective phase pressured by rising oil prices and yields. It is time to exit gold longs and wait for a much lower price. Further downside to at least 4400 and possibly much lower is expected. Once oil tops out, a major buying opportunity will emerge.
GLD AVOID
US oil producers benefit from high prices.
US oil and gas producers will have a very good summer because higher oil prices make them highly profitable, and their stocks look cheap today relative to the potential for $150-$200 oil.
XLE LONG
Short dollar after Strait reopens.
The US dollar index will head much lower after the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Short the dollar after a potential bounce to the top of the current trading range, as the crisis resolution will remove safe-haven support and the Fed is likely to ease.
US Dollar Index (DXY) SHORT
Oil to $150-$200 if closure continues.
All buffers and safety margins are exhausted. If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for another month, oil prices must rise to $150-$200 to force 10 million barrels per day of demand destruction. The restart process after any peace deal will take months, keeping prices elevated. There is a more than 50% probability of $150-$200 oil within the next 30 days.
WTI LONG
HIGH
18:04
May 21
May 21
Macro Voices
13d
XES
WTI
DXY 1ST
GLD
▾
HIGH
Oil field services for energy rebuild
Market is too focused on short-term oil headlines and missing that global energy infrastructure has been exposed as fragile. Even if a peace deal is reached, restarting flows, rebuilding confidence, and hardening the system will take months to years. Oil field services will benefit from this resilience rebuild. However, the XES ETF has already rallied 72% YTD, so a longer-dated call option is used to define risk while maintaining upside participation. The Dec 2026 $135 call at $14.25 premium provides upside above $135 with limited downside to the premium paid, and flexibility to roll down strikes if a pullback occurs.
XES LONG
Long crude oil for spike risk
The market underappreciates the risk of a prolonged Hormuz crisis. If a peace deal fails, crude oil could spike well above $130, possibly to $150+. I have a long position via bull call spreads and recently covered short calls on the September contract to leave upside open. I intend to keep buying dips on peace-deal headlines. When the Strait eventually reopens, the initial relief selloff will be a buying opportunity as recovery takes months.
WTI LONG
Short dollar after retest to 101
The dollar index closed the gap at 99.39 and will likely retest the top of the trading range around 101. After that retest, given the eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a longer-term decline in the dollar, it makes sense to short the dollar. The trade is to give it room to run up to the top of the range, then short.
DXY SHORT
Avoid gold near-term due to oil
Gold is inversely correlated with oil. If oil continues to spike (to $150+ as Morgan predicts), gold will fall further. The next support is 4400 (200-day moving average), but if the oil crisis deepens that level will not hold. Therefore it is time to exit gold longs and wait for much lower prices. Eventually when oil tops, gold will be a big buying opportunity, but not yet.
GLD AVOID
HIGH
17:24
May 21
May 21
Macro Voices
13d
XES 1ST
WTI 1ST
XOP 1ST
GLD FLIP
USO
▾
HIGH
Oil field services benefit from resilience rebuild.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis exposes energy infrastructure fragility. Even if the shooting stops, hardening pipelines, restarting wells, and rebuilding confidence will take months to years. This creates a multi-year investment cycle in oil field services. The XES ETF has already rallied but using long-dated calls captures upside while limiting downside risk from peace headlines.
XES LONG
Oil to $150-$200 if crisis continues.
The Strait of Hormuz closure has exhausted all temporary buffers (SPR releases, floating storage, inventory efficiency gains) and the market is complacent. To balance the 10 million bpd supply loss, oil prices must rise enough to cause demand destruction. If the crisis continues another month, prices will reach $150-$200. Even if a peace deal is reached today, restarting shut-in production and tanker traffic will take months, keeping oil above $100 for a year or two.
WTI LONG
US Permian producers thrive at $100 oil.
At $100 oil, US Permian basin producers are highly profitable and having a great time. They benefit directly from elevated prices and have no ESG headwinds currently. The sector will generate strong cash flows as long as oil stays above $70-$80.
XOP LONG
Avoid gold until oil crisis peaks.
Gold has been falling inversely to oil. If oil goes to $150+, gold will break below the 200-day moving average (4400) and fall further. It is time to exit longs and wait for a lower entry. When oil peaks, gold will become a major buying opportunity.
GLD AVOID
Buy crude oil dips for upside to $150+.
Given Morgan Downey's view that oil will spike to $150+, I am buying dips in crude oil by covering short calls on my bull call spread to leave upside open. I will continue to buy peace-deal dips. The eventual reopening will create a huge buy-the-dip opportunity as restart delays push prices back up.
USO LONG
HIGH
17:26
May 14
May 14
Macro Voices
20d
GLD FLIP
SOFR 1ST
WTI 1ST
COPPER
▾
HIGH
Gold rally if China resolves crisis
If China successfully intervenes to resolve the Hormuz crisis, the bottom for gold is likely already in. The prior negative correlation with oil is abating, and gold is set for a substantial rally from current levels. This is a conditional bullish setup depending on a diplomatic resolution.
GLD LONG
Fed will cut more than priced
Based on Mike Green's view that the economy is weakening faster than headline data suggests, with deteriorating labor conditions, overstated payrolls, and demand destruction from the energy shock rather than persistent inflation, the market is underpricing the probability of aggressive Fed easing. The trade is a bull call spread on December 2027 SOFR futures to capture a reversal in the future policy rate path, targeting a move to higher prices as rates are cut more than expected.
SOFR LONG
Oil prices to reach all-time highs
The Hormuz closure has shut in ~13 million barrels per day of oil, inventories are drawing down globally, and demand destruction has not yet occurred. Despite near-term price patience, continued stock draws will force oil prices to all-time highs if the strait remains closed. The back of the curve is already rising, signaling an inevitable price surge.
WTI LONG
Copper bullish breakout to 7
Copper has broken out to all-time new highs and the technical setup suggests continuation. Pullbacks are shallow and well-contained, and the measured move target is $7. The bullish trend is intact with no immediate reversal catalysts, so copper should trade higher.
COPPER LONG
HIGH
17:21
May 14
May 14
Macro Voices
20d
URA
COPPER 1ST
WTI
GLD FLIP
SPY
▾
HIGH
Uranium buying opportunity after correction
Long-term super bullish on uranium and nuclear, but the miners have not participated in the broad rally and may correct if semiconductors blow off. A near-term correction would be a buying opportunity, as the bullish thesis remains intact.
URA WATCH
Copper bullish to new highs
Copper has broken out to all-time highs and the bull impulse should continue, with pullbacks contained to 25-50 cents. The next target is $7.00, and the copper market remains decisively bullish.
COPPER LONG
Watch for crude oil breakout
Oil has been respecting its 50-day moving average and pullbacks are being bought. With the Strait continuing to be closed and inventories drawing, there is potential for a bull impulse if WTI can clear the $100 level. Waiting for a confirmed breakout.
WTI WATCH
Gold to break out in H2
Gold is showing signs of a recovery and oversold indicators suggest the bottom may be in or near. However, if the Hormuz crisis is not resolved by China, gold could still see another leg down. If China resolves the crisis, the bottom is likely in and gold could rally strongly.
GLD LONG
Hedge with S&P 500 put spread
Despite the strong uptrend, the Hormuz crisis is certain and imminent and could cause an economic shock. I maintain put spread hedges on the S&P 500 as insurance, even though they may expire worthless, because the downside risk is significant if the energy shock transmits to equities.
SPY SHORT
Bull call spread on SOFR futures
The market has repriced Fed rate expectations to a more restrictive path, but weaker labor data, demand destruction from the energy shock, and slowing growth will force the Fed to ease more aggressively. A bull call spread on the December 2027 SOFR futures allows a defined-risk bet on this reversal, with a 3.5-to-1 risk-reward if the contract settles at or above 97.
SOFR futures (December 2027) LONG
HIGH
17:14
May 14
May 14
Macro Voices
20d
SOFR futures
SOFR futures (Dec 2027)
SPY FLIP
▾
HIGH
Fed will cut rates aggressively by September
The economy is weakening faster than headline data suggests due to overstated payrolls (birth-death model) and residual seasonality in inflation. By September, Kevin Warsh will cut interest rates more aggressively than the market expects as inflation moderates and demand destruction from the energy shock hits.
SOFR futures LONG
Bull call spread on Dec 2027 SOFR
To position for Mike Green's view of a more aggressive Fed easing cycle, buy a bull call spread on the December 2027 SOFR contract (buy 96.50 call, sell 97 call) for a net debit of ~11 cents. Max profit 39 cents if SOFR settles at or above 97, break-even at 96.61, risk defined. This fades the market's recent repricing that pulled rate cuts out of the curve.
SOFR futures (Dec 2027) LONG
Passive flows keep S&P biased higher
The S&P 500 is supported by mindless passive and systematic flows from 401ks, target-date fund rebalancing, and CTA short covering. As long as unemployment does not rise significantly, the mechanical bid will persist. Near-term bias should be bullish but more muted after the recent record inflows have been exhausted.
SPY LONG
HIGH
19:36
May 07
May 07
Macro Voices
27d
005930.KS 1ST
URA
DBC
CNH
WTI
▾
HIGH
Samsung will be most profitable company
Samsung Electronics is set to become the most profitable company in history this year due to surging semiconductor demand, yet its single-digit P/E does not fully price in this earnings power.
005930.KS LONG
Uranium bullish after Iran resolution
Uranium prices will head higher once the Iran conflict is over, as the nuclear renaissance and supply constraints become clearer; I would welcome a dip as a buying opportunity.
URA WATCH
Structural commodity stockpiling bullish
Countries and corporations will be forced to rebuild strategic inventories of physical commodities (energy, fertilizers, industrial metals) because reliance on US Navy and just-in-time supply chains is over, leading to a structural multi-year bullish outlook for commodities.
DBC LONG
Renminbi is the easiest trade up
The Chinese renminbi is the easiest trade: both the US and China want a higher RMB, it is the most undervalued major currency, and it is already appreciating; a positive US-China summit outcome will likely accelerate this trend.
CNH LONG
Oil futures too cheap six months out
Oil futures are too cheap in six months because Iran has strong incentives to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, as it generates significant revenue from tolls and higher oil prices, and the market is underestimating the persistence of the disruption.
WTI LONG
Added S&P downside hedges
With the Iran conflict unresolved and uncertainty high, I added to downside hedges on S&P 500 futures to protect against potential sharp declines.
SPY SHORT
Deferred crude oil bullish on logistics
Longer-dated crude oil contracts are less volatile and will remain buoyant due to persistent logistical bottlenecks and the time needed to replenish inventories, even if front-month prices swing on headlines.
Crude Oil Deferred Futures LONG
HIGH
19:07
May 07
May 07
Macro Voices
27d
DBC 1ST
SPY
▾
HIGH
Long DBC call for commodity stockpiling theme.
Structural shift to strategic commodity stockpiling across energy, agriculture, and industrial inputs driven by countries and corporations no longer relying on just-in-time supply chains. To position for this theme without chasing headline spikes, use the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) via a long-dated call option (Jan 15, 2027 $30 strike) to maintain upside participation while defining downside risk if geopolitical premium unwinds.
DBC LONG
Add S&P downside hedges.
Despite S&P rallying strong on unconfirmed peace rumors, breadth is poor with many stocks making new lows. The fog of war is thickening due to Trump's 60-day rule issue. To hedge against downside risk in uncertain times, added to downside hedges on S&P futures after the big move higher.
SPY SHORT
HIGH
18:33
May 07
May 07
Macro Voices
27d
WTI
KS 1ST
SPY
DBC 1ST
CNH 1ST
▾
HIGH
Oil futures too cheap in six months
The oil forward curve prices in a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within months, but Iran has strong incentives to keep the strait closed or impose tolls, and Saudi Arabia may prefer to sell less oil at higher prices. Therefore, oil in six months is too cheap, and the market is underestimating the persistence of the disruption.
WTI LONG
Samsung most profitable company ever
Samsung Electronics is on track to become the most profitable company in the history of capitalism this year, driven by AI semiconductor demand, yet the stock is not fully pricing in this outcome. The company trades at a single-digit P/E, similar to cyclical oil stocks at past peaks, offering value despite the cyclical nature of the business.
KS LONG
Added downside hedges on S&P
Given the uncertainty around the Iran conflict, the 60-day rule, and the possibility of further escalation, I used the rally in S&P futures to add downside hedges. The fog of war is thick, and I prefer to be hedged even if the rally continues, because the risk of a sudden reversal is high.
SPY SHORT
Structural bullish for commodities
Rather than buying the DBC ETF outright, which is highly sensitive to crude oil headlines, use a long-dated call option (Jan 2027 $30 strike) on DBC to gain convex long exposure to the broader commodity stockpiling theme while limiting downside risk in case of a short-term geopolitical de-escalation. The goal is to participate in the long-term structural thesis without the full volatility of the underlying.
DBC LONG
Easy trade: renminbi moving up
The Chinese renminbi is the most undervalued currency in the world and has the strongest momentum. Both the US and China want a higher RMB, and it is already rising. This is the easiest trade because of alignment of incentives and massive valuation tailwinds, and it will likely continue to rise 5-8% per year for the next few years, especially if the Trump-Xi summits go well.
CNH LONG
HIGH
18:31
Apr 30
Apr 30
Macro Voices
1mo
SPY
EUFN
GOLD
USO
XLF
▾
HIGH
SHORT S&P on coming oil shock.
The stock market is in denial about the coming oil shock, which will trigger a global recession-like selloff similar to COVID. Erik doubled down on his S&P 500 hedge position and will add more on bounces.
SPY SHORT
Long US financials, short European financials.
European financials have materially outperformed US financials, but underlying macro stress in Europe will reverse this relative performance. The trade is long US financials (XLF) vs short European financials (EUFN) to capture the divergence.
EUFN SHORT
XLF LONG
AVOID gold; selloff likely ahead.
Gold will likely sell off further as the oil crunch forces the Fed to consider rate hikes, creating downside pressure. Erik sold more than half his gold position to reduce risk.
GOLD AVOID
LONG crude oil as crisis continues.
The Iran crisis will continue with the Strait of Hormuz closed, leading to sustained upward pressure on crude oil prices. Erik bought the dip and expects further gains as physical shortages hit the market.
USO LONG
HIGH
18:29
Apr 30
Apr 30
Macro Voices
1mo
XLF
SPY
GOLD
EUFN
WTI crude oil futures
▾
HIGH
Short EUFN vs long XLF for divergence.
Underlying economic stress is building in Europe, which will hit financials with a lag, while the US financial sector is more resilient. The European financials (EUFN) have outperformed US financials (XLF) by a large margin since early 2025, creating an opportunity to fade that relative performance by shorting EUFN and going long XLF to capture the divergence as macro stress surfaces.
XLF LONG
EUFN SHORT
S&P hedge on oil crisis denial.
The oil crisis from the Strait of Hormuz closure is building and will eventually cause a market selloff similar to COVID. The market remains in denial, so a hedge on the S&P 500 is warranted. Erik doubled down on his S&P hedge after the spike to 7200, expecting a selloff as the real impacts of the oil shortage are felt.
SPY SHORT
Gold avoid ahead of oil shock.
Rising crude oil prices will force the Fed to consider rate hikes rather than cuts, which is negative for gold. Erik sold more than half his gold position on the spike above 4730, expecting further downside as the oil crunch worsens and the market panics, potentially bringing gold to new lows below the 200-day moving average.
GOLD AVOID
Buy crude on strait closure.
The Strait of Hormuz closure will keep crude oil prices under upward pressure until a deal is reached. Erik bought WTI futures at $79 and expects continued gains as the market realizes the severity of the disruption. The UAE leaving OPEC further signals a regime shift in spare capacity, supporting higher prices in the near term.
WTI crude oil futures LONG
HIGH
17:23
Apr 30
Apr 30
Macro Voices
1mo
WTI
SPY
GOLD FLIP
XLF 1ST
EUFN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long WTI crude oil, expect higher
Bought the dip in WTI crude oil at $79, expecting continued upside as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and real supply effects hit global refineries. The UAE leaving OPEC signals the end of spare capacity, further supporting prices. With no imminent deal, prices are likely to keep rising from current levels above $110.
WTI LONG
Short S&P 500, expect decline
The market is in denial about the severity of the Iran crisis, similar to the lag in recognizing the COVID pandemic. As real economic disruptions from the oil spike become unavoidable, a major equity selloff is inevitable. He doubled down on his S&P 500 hedge position at 7200 to profit from the coming decline.
SPY SHORT
Avoid gold, expect further downside
The oil price surge forces the Fed to lean hawkish, crushing gold. Gold has already sold off and he expects further downside to new lows below 4100, possibly below the 200-day moving average. He reduced his gold position by more than half to avoid the near-term drawdown while remaining long-term bullish.
GOLD AVOID
Long US financials, short European financials
European financials have materially outperformed US financials since early 2025 despite a more fragile macro backdrop. As the energy crisis transmits into margin pressure, credit deterioration, and second-order effects, European financials should begin to underperform. The trade pairs a long in US financials (XLF) against a short in European financials (EUFN) to capture the anticipated relative mean reversion.
XLF LONG
EUFN SHORT
HIGH
20:31
Apr 23
Apr 23
Macro Voices
1mo
SPY
BNO
WTI
COPPER
▾
HIGH
Hedging S&P against energy disruption
The Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz are far from resolved, and the resulting energy disruption will hurt corporate profits and the broader economy. To hedge against this risk, I bought a put spread on S&P 500 futures (6800/6000), expecting equities to decline as the reality of prolonged energy disruption sets in.
SPY SHORT
New floor higher, value below $80
Brent crude has established a new structural floor around $80 after the Iran-driven supply disruption, and with the backwardation providing positive roll yield, buying deferred contracts at or below $80 offers value because the market is underestimating the duration of the disruption and the difficulty of restarting production.
BNO LONG
Bull call spread on deferred WTI
The market is underestimating how long the energy disruption will last, and the deferred WTI contracts are undervalued relative to the likely higher equilibrium. A bull call spread on December 2026 WTI captures upside repricing with defined risk and convexity, while using deep in-the-money options to minimize time decay and volatility exposure.
WTI LONG
Supply constraints, demand robust, bullish
Copper is supported by robust demand from China (inventory drawdown, premium to import) and significant supply-side constraints, including a shortage of sulfuric acid from the Middle East that is needed for copper processing, making the outlook for copper prices clearly upward.
COPPER LONG
HIGH
20:28
Apr 23
Apr 23
Macro Voices
1mo
WTI
GOLD
SPY
▾
HIGH
Deferred crude oil futures underpriced.
The market is underestimating how long the energy disruption will last. The forward curve shows extreme backwardation, but deferred crude futures are underpriced relative to the likely duration. A bull call spread on December 2026 WTI captures upside repricing with defined risk and reduced volatility sensitivity.
WTI LONG
Gold downside risk if oil persists.
Gold is structurally bullish long term but faces near-term headwinds from oil-induced inflation that could last longer than expected. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 4685 is critical; a close below suggests significant downside risk. I am watching this level closely before acting.
GOLD WATCH
S&P downside hedge against oil disruption.
The Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure will cause a prolonged energy disruption that the market is dismissing. I have bought a put spread on S&P futures (6800/6000) to hedge against a major equity sell-off driven by the economic impact of sustained high oil prices.
SPY SHORT
HIGH
18:06
Apr 23
Apr 23
Macro Voices
1mo
BNO
Wheat futures (December 2026)
Uranium miners (sector)
WTI crude oil December 2026 futures
Soybean futures (November 2026)
▾
HIGH
Brent crude floor moved higher, buy deferred.
The new floor for Brent crude oil has moved $10-15 higher due to the Iran-driven supply disruption and the time needed for normalization. The December 2026 contract near $80 is undervalued relative to the new floor, and extreme backwardation provides positive roll yield, making deferred contracts attractive.
BNO LONG
Long wheat, short soybeans on fertilizer.
Fertilizer shortages from the Middle East crisis will hit nitrogen-intensive crops like wheat harder than soybeans, which fix their own nitrogen. A pairs trade long December 2026 wheat futures and short November 2026 soybean futures captures this differential without taking directional commodity risk.
Wheat futures (December 2026) LONG
Soybean futures (November 2026) SHORT
Uranium miners bullish long-term.
Uranium miners have a bullish chart with strong nuclear news flow tailwinds and structural accumulation. If the broader market holds, uranium miners should continue to outperform. The risk is a broad market sell-off, but the long-term outlook is very positive.
Uranium miners (sector) WATCH
Bull call spread on deferred WTI.
The structural floor for crude oil has risen, and deferred contracts are cheap relative to spot. A bull call spread on December 2026 WTI using November options captures upside with defined risk, low time decay, and high delta exposure.
WTI crude oil December 2026 futures LONG
Gold long-term bullish, watch for entry.
Gold's multi-year bull run foundation remains intact despite the correction. Once the oil-driven inflation shock passes and central bank dilemmas support gold, prices will resume higher. Current consolidation is a pause, not a reversal.
GLD WATCH
Copper bullish on supply and demand.
Copper prices are well-supported by supply constraints, including the reliance on Middle Eastern sulfuric acid for mining, and recovering demand in China as inventories drop. The structural deficit and energy transition demand point to further upside.
HG=F LONG
Bearish S&P 500 on energy disruption.
The Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure will disrupt energy supply for months, severely impacting the global economy and corporate profits. The S&P 500 is vulnerable to a sharp decline. I bought a 6800/6000 put spread on S&P 500 futures as a hedge.
ES=F SHORT
HIGH
17:49
Apr 16
Apr 16
Macro Voices
1mo
XLI
TLT
GOLD
XLE
URANIUM
▾
HIGH
Energy and infrastructure are attractive.
Sectors related to energy, uranium, domestic electrical infrastructure, and industrials that sell into that are well positioned due to existing bottlenecks, reshoring trends, and the need for energy security, making them attractive investments.
XLI LONG
XLE LONG
URANIUM LONG
PAVE LONG
TLT options trade for inflation then growth slowdown.
Use a structured options trade on TLT to position for near-term inflation risks (via a put spread) and potential growth slowdown later (via a long-dated call), taking advantage of low bond volatility to define risk while maintaining exposure to a potential rally in duration.
TLT WATCH
Own gold in inflationary environment.
In the current environment of supply chain disruptions, inflation, and eventual money printing by governments to cover deficits, gold is a good store of value and should be owned as a hedge against financial and geopolitical risks.
GOLD LONG
Grocery stores benefit from food inflation.
In a food inflation environment, grocery store companies will see accelerated comparable sales and, due to their high fixed cost models, will benefit from operating leverage on higher nominal sales, making them a good investment.
XLP LONG
HIGH
17:45
Apr 16
Apr 16
Macro Voices
1mo
URANIUM
BNO
USO
GOLD
TLT
▾
HIGH
Watching uranium for a breakout.
Uranium has been in a multi-month correction and is attempting to turn up. It shows characteristics of a setup after a prolonged correction; if the broader risk-on environment continues, uranium could get a tailwind and break out, making it a high-priority watchlist item.
URANIUM WATCH
Oil to sell off then buy time spreads.
In the immediate future, the perception that the Iran crisis is ending could cause Brent and WTI futures to sell off further due to macro traders overlooking lag effects. However, the real economic impact of a 6-week oil delivery gap will soon be realized, creating an opportunity to buy the dip in front-month oil time spreads.
BNO NEUTRAL
USO LONG
WTI NEUTRAL
Buy gold on dips to 4685 support.
Gold will eventually retrace fully to new all-time highs once the Iran crisis is truly over. A dip to the 4685-4685 support zone (38.2% Fibonacci) on the June contract presents a buying opportunity, provided the Iran situation does not worsen markedly.
GOLD LONG
Paired TLT options for inflation then growth slowdown.
The bond market is reacting to inflation impulses pushing yields higher, but the same inflation shock can lead to demand destruction and a growth slowdown, causing long-term yields to reverse lower. A paired options trade on TLT structures near-term downside protection via a put spread against longer-dated upside exposure via a call, aiming to profit from both the near-term sell-off risk and the eventual rally in duration.
TLT WATCH
Long-term bullish on uranium and miners.
The nuclear renaissance news flow continues to improve, supporting a long-term bullish thesis for uranium. Seasonality suggests a slow period until after American Labor Day, but eventually much higher prices are expected for both spot uranium and uranium miners.
URA LONG
HIGH
17:31
Apr 16
Apr 16
Macro Voices
1mo
GOLD
CASH 1ST
URANIUM 1ST
USO
WTI
▾
HIGH
Own cash and gold as a safe haven.
Due to supply chain disruptions from the closed Strait of Hormuz, which are accelerating nonlinearly and leading to severe inflation (food, energy) and bond market stress, the speaker is holding cash and bullion as a safe haven. He views this environment as tough for risk-taking and investing, and gold is a preferred store of value.
GOLD LONG
CASH LONG
Own energy, uranium, and electrical infrastructure.
The cleanest fundamental plays in the current environment are in energy, uranium, domestic electrical infrastructure, and the industrials selling into that sector, due to existing bottlenecks, reshoring impetus, and strategic importance.
URANIUM LONG
PAVE LONG
XLI LONG
XLE LONG
Trade oil time spread compression and expansion.
Front-month oil time spreads (e.g., Brent, WTI) are expected to compress further in the near term as macro traders perceive the crisis ending, but will explode higher in 2-3 weeks when the physical supply 'air pocket' hits Southeast Asia and Australia. This presents a trading opportunity to buy the dip in time spreads.
USO WATCH
WTI WATCH
BRENT WATCH
Bitcoin likely follows software ETF lower.
Bitcoin is likely to follow the IGV software ETF lower if the speaker's thesis of a supply chain-driven market downturn plays out, indicating a short or avoid stance on Bitcoin in the near term.
IGV AVOID
BTC AVOID
Structured TLT options for yield sequence.
A structured options trade on TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) is proposed to navigate the sequence of near-term inflation risks pushing yields higher, followed by a potential growth slowdown pulling yields lower. The trade buys a long-dated call for upside if yields fall later and a near-term put spread for protection if yields rise further first.
TLT WATCH
HIGH
17:09
Apr 09
Apr 09
Macro Voices
1mo
XLE
URANIUM
WTI
GOLD
▾
Oil equities have risen only 30-40% while spot oil prices doubled, and the forward curve has only moved from ~$50 to ~$70, indicating the market expects a swift resolution to the crisis. The physical oil market is fundamentally tight, and post-crisis inventory rebuilding will be difficult, leading to a sustained rise in the forward curve which oil company cash flows are priced against. LONG because oil equities offer leveraged exposure to a tightening physical market and have not yet priced in a higher long-term price environment. The Iran conflict resolves quickly and the perceived pre-crisis oil surplus reasserts itself, keeping the forward curve depressed.
XLE LONG
medium-term
The uranium market is in a structural deficit as existing mine supply is insufficient to meet current reactor demand, a situation exacerbated by the depletion of Japanese stockpiles and a lack of new major mines before 2030. Prices must rise to incentivize new production; reactor demand is highly inelastic as fuel cost is a minor component of total operating cost, meaning high prices do not destroy demand. LONG due to a clear, multi-year supply-demand imbalance with significant price appreciation potential required to balance the market. A major nuclear accident or successful attack on a reactor causes a global public backlash against nuclear energy.
URANIUM LONG
long-term
Patrick Ceresna recommended a June 2026 NYMEX crude oil bull call spread (buy $100 call, sell $120 call) for a net debit of ~$3, offering a maximum payout of ~$17 if crude rallies above $120 by expiration. The recent ceasefire only reduced immediate threat, but the structural risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remains, creating an asymmetric payoff profile where downside is limited to the premium paid, while upside is leveraged to a re-escalation. LONG via options spread to gain convex, defined-risk exposure to a potential re-escalation of geopolitical risk and its impact on oil prices. The ceasefire holds, the Strait reopens fully, and oil flows normalize, leading to stable or lower oil prices through June.
WTI LONG
short-term to mid-term
Gold attracted substantial speculative, momentum-driven inflows in late 2025/early 2026, creating near-term vulnerability if those flows reverse. Concurrently, a potential Fed rate hike cycle presents a historical headwind. In the medium term, leadership in a commodity bull market can rotate away from precious metals to energy (as in the 1970s). The next major bullish phase for gold will likely require a catalyst like a crisis of confidence in sovereign solvency. WATCH due to mixed near-term signals; the long-term bullish thesis remains but a better entry point may emerge if speculative longs unwind or if gold underperforms other commodities temporarily. The Federal Reserve embarks on an aggressive rate-hiking cycle, strengthening the US dollar and reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold.
GOLD WATCH
short-term to long-term
17:06
Apr 09
Apr 09
Macro Voices
1mo
WTI
URANIUM
DXY
SPY
TLT
▾
Patrick explicitly described structuring a June 2026 NSX crude oil bull call spread (buy $100 call, sell $120 call) for a net debit near $3, risking $3 to gain up to $17. The ceasefire reduced immediate threat but did not eliminate Strait of Hormuz risk; downside is limited while any re-escalation could quickly push prices toward recent highs. Asymmetric setup with high reward-to-risk (near 6:1) favors a long position via options to capture convex upside if geopolitics deteriorate. The ceasefire holds and the situation stabilizes, keeping oil prices subdued.
WTI LONG
Medium-term (until June 2026 expiration).
Erik stated uranium fundamentals are "uber bullish" and strengthening, with the crisis boosting commitment to nuclear energy. Any weakness in uranium assets due to conflict fears is a buy-the-dip opportunity, provided no catastrophic events (e.g., reactor targeting or nuclear weapon use) occur. Long-term bullish outlook, with dips offering entry points for a sustained rally, especially if a true ceasefire and risk-on rally emerge. An intentional breach of a nuclear reactor or tactical nuclear escalation, which could severely impact uranium markets.
URANIUM LONG
Long-term.
The US Dollar Index gapped down on the ceasefire announcement, leaving an unfilled gap, and Erik believes the recent rally was conflict-driven. The market perceives Trump seeking de-escalation, but if the conflict re-ignites, the gap may fill; the secular downtrend could resume only when the conflict truly ends. Monitoring for gap fill or a resumption of the downtrend, depending on news flow and conflict resolution. The conflict ends decisively, leading to a sustained dollar decline.
DXY WATCH
Short-term.
Patrick noted the S&P 500 retraced nearly 8% off lows but is close to prior highs with overhead resistance, amid persistent risks (higher oil, inflation, credit stresses). While tactical upside is possible, asymmetry is lacking due to substantial downside risk if the market rolls over, making long positions unattractive. Advises against putting new risk on here, as the setup does not favor a bullish bias given elevated uncertainties. The market breaks out above resistance and continues advancing.
SPY AVOID
Short-term.
Patrick observed Treasury yields have pulled back from highs and are directly sensitive to oil price movements. Bonds are seen as a buying opportunity, but only after the current geopolitical stresses settle and the path for yields becomes clearer. Waiting for resolution before positioning long bonds, as short-term uncertainties remain high. Oil prices re-escalate, pushing yields higher and delaying a bond rally.
TLT WATCH
Medium-term.
Gold has shown signs of breaking its recent negative correlation with oil, and Erik questions whether it will revert to being a geopolitical hedge. If oil-driven inflation fears subside or a re-escalation occurs, gold could resume its safe-haven role, especially since algorithmic selling pressure may have played out. Critical to monitor gold's response to any oil price re-escalation to confirm a return to its traditional hedge function. Oil-driven inflation concerns persist, keeping the Fed hawkish and pressuring gold lower.
GOLD WATCH
Short-term.
17:00
Apr 09
Apr 09
Macro Voices
1mo
XLE 1ST
DBA
URANIUM 1ST
▾
Oil equities are up only 30-40% despite spot oil prices doubling, because the forward curve (pricing future cash flows) has only moved from ~$50 to ~$70. The market assumes the Iran conflict will resolve quickly and the oil market will return to its prior state. However, the conflict has drawn down global inventories by 300-400 million barrels, and countries will need to rebuild both commercial and strategic reserves. Once the immediate crisis passes, the focus will shift to inventory rebuilding, revealing the underlying market tightness. This will cause the forward curve to rise, which in turn will drive oil equities significantly higher as they price in improved future cash flows. A swift and lasting resolution to the Iran conflict that allows for rapid inventory replenishment without sustained higher demand.
XLE LONG
medium-term
Global grain demand has been extraordinarily strong for 15 years due to rising protein consumption, but record yields have kept the market balanced. A significant amount of fertilizer transits the now-disrupted Strait of Hormuz. The market has required "perfection" in yields each year to meet demand. A fertilizer supply disruption threatens to reduce yields, breaking this multi-year equilibrium. The grain market exhibits strong asymmetric convexity; if the perfect yield trend is broken due to fertilizer issues, the market could tighten "way faster" than expected, leading to a sharp price move. The fertilizer disruption is resolved quickly, or yields remain resilient due to other factors like favorable weather or advanced seed technology.
DBA WATCH
medium-term
The uranium market is already in a supply deficit, a fact previously obscured by the drawdown of Japanese post-Fukushima stockpiles which are now exhausted. Mine supply cannot meet current reactor demand through 2030. New mine supply is scarce for the next 3-4 years. Reactor demand is highly inelastic; even at $500/lb, fuel costs remain a small portion of operating costs and would be passed through to ratepayers. The simple supply-demand deficit will drive prices higher. A long-term price of $150/lb U3O8 is needed to incentivize sufficient new mine development to balance the market, offering substantial upside from current levels. A catastrophic event involving a nuclear reactor (e.g., a military strike) or the use of a nuclear weapon, which could severely damage public sentiment towards nuclear energy.
URANIUM LONG
long-term
14:18
Apr 02
Apr 02
Macro Voices
2mo
OPENAI
BIZD
ANTHROPIC
WTI
▾
The speaker detailed how AI inference for leading models (OpenAI's GPT, Anthropic's Claude) is massively loss-making under current subscription plans, with power users burning thousands of dollars in compute on $200/month plans. He explicitly compared the funding frenzy and unsustainabile economics to the dot-com bubble. The fundamental business model is broken because competitive pressure forces models to burn exponentially more tokens for useful outputs, eroding hardware efficiency gains. The path to profitability via per-token pricing would crater demand and is untested. WATCH because the setup for a major sector dislocation is clear, but the timing of a bust is uncertain (akin to the NASDAQ doubling after 1998 before crashing in 2000). The upcoming IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic could be pivotal events. A breakthrough in inference efficiency or a massive, sustained subsidy from vendors/governments could prolong the unsustainable model, deferring the reckoning.
OPENAI WATCH
ANTHROPIC WATCH
Medium-term to long-term.
The speaker recommended expressing a bearish view on the private credit/BDC complex (proxy: BIZD ETF) due to stress from AI disrupting the SaaS companies that form a meaningful part of its portfolio, following Matt Barrie's thesis. The BIZD is already down ~15% YTD, making a physical short expensive due to negative carry from its distribution yield. Buying in-the-money put options (e.g., May 15th, 2026 $13 put) provides direct downside convexity with defined, capped risk. SHORT via options to gain exposure to the theme of private credit repricing without the cost burden of a physical short, positioning for a potential next leg lower in the sector. A broad market rally or a stabilization in credit spreads could lead to time decay and loss of the option premium, though risk is capped to the premium paid.
BIZD SHORT
Short-term (43 days to expiration).
The speaker stated the Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a physical shortage of 8-12 million barrels per day of oil, and President Trump's speech confirmed a prolonged war, eliminating hopes for a near-term ceasefire. The U.S. has exhausted its policy levers (SPR releases, sanctions waivers) to mitigate prices. Demand destruction will only materialize at significantly higher price levels (~$160/barrel), and logistical constraints prevent SPR oil from quickly alleviating Asian shortages. LONG because the fundamental supply shock is severe and ongoing, with no near-term political resolution in sight. Prices are rationally moving higher to balance the market via demand destruction. A rapid, unexpected diplomatic resolution to the Iran conflict could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and crash prices. Alternatively, a deep, immediate global recession could destroy demand faster than anticipated.
WTI NEUTRAL
Short-term to medium-term.
14:15
Apr 02
Apr 02
Macro Voices
2mo
USO
LNG
WTI
▾
The speaker states the "story is in the price differentials, not in the price level," highlighting a ~$80 spread between WTI (~$90) and medium sour crude in Asia (~$170+). U.S. SPR releases are of medium sour crude desired by refiners but are released in the West while the physical shortage is in Asia. This action maintains the wide differential, aligning with stated U.S. policy to keep domestic energy costs lower than competitors'. Traders should focus on this differential as a primary tradeable signal and outcome of U.S. policy actions, rather than solely on the absolute level of WTI. A fundamental shift in U.S. policy away from manipulating differentials, or a logistical breakthrough that quickly moves SPR crude to Asia.
USO WATCH
Short-to-medium-term
The speaker lists LNG as one of several commodities facing a global shortage alongside oil, NGLs, and fertilizers, causing petrochemical plant closures and power shortages worldwide. The closure of the Hormuz Strait disrupts global LNG flows. The crisis is described as crushing industries on every level, with the impact on LNG and natural gas following the same trajectory as oil. The same supply constraints and geopolitical pressures driving oil prices higher will also drive LNG prices higher, contributing to a broad-based global energy crisis. A rapid resolution to the conflict or a deeper-than-expected global recession that crushes industrial and power demand for gas.
LNG NEUTRAL
Medium-term
The speaker states the war is confirmed to be long, oil prices spiked 5% on that news, and a structural shortage of 8 million barrels per day exists after accounting for demand changes. President Trump has exhausted policy levers (SPR, sanctions waivers, Jones Act) to mitigate prices. The only remaining price ceiling is demand destruction, which his modeling shows occurs around $160/bbl. With no effective supply-side mitigation left and a prolonged war sustaining the physical shortage, prices are set to continue rising until they trigger significant demand destruction or a recession. An abrupt, unforeseen end to the war and reopening of the Hormuz Strait, or a global recession occurring faster than modeled, destroying demand.
WTI NEUTRAL
Medium-term
14:11
Apr 02
Apr 02
Macro Voices
2mo
DG
GOLD
BIZD
▾
The dollar is consolidating at the top of an 8-month trading range with geopolitical tailwinds, currently around 99.77 on the DXY. If it sustains above the 100 level and breaks to fresh highs, it could easily shoot up to 102-103. WATCH for bullish follow-through on the dollar as a technical breakout play, given supportive chart structure. Failure to break out or unexpected escalation in conflict altering market dynamics.
DG WATCH
Short-term.
Gold is in a correction phase after a 2-year bull run, with potential to test lower levels like 4200 or 4000, but long-term fundamentals remain bullish. The correction presents buying opportunities; any dips should be used to accumulate positions for an eventual rally. LONG on gold for a sustained move back to all-time highs, viewing the current correction as a setup for future gains. Further escalation in the Iran conflict leading to oil-induced inflation, which could delay Fed rate cuts and pressure gold in the short term.
GOLD LONG
Long-term.
AI is destabilizing the private credit complex exposed to SaaS businesses, with BIZD (a BDC and private credit proxy) already down over 15% year-to-date. To avoid the negative carry of a physical short from high distribution yield, buy May 15th 2026 $13 put options for convex downside exposure with limited premium decay. SHORT on BIZD to capitalize on potential further deterioration in private credit due to AI-driven stress and repricing. Market stabilizes or rallies, capping loss at the option premium paid (~$1.10).
BIZD SHORT
Medium-term (43 days to expiration).
12:34
Apr 02
Apr 02
Macro Voices
2mo
BIZD 1ST
WTI
▾
The speaker proposed buying May 2026 $13 put options on the BIZD ETF, a public market proxy for Business Development Companies (BDCs) and private credit. Matt Barrie's analysis indicates private credit is stressed because its portfolios contain debt from SaaS companies whose business models are being eroded by AI, and funding rounds are becoming too large for equity, forcing over-reliance on debt. SHORT (via puts) to gain convex downside exposure to a potential repricing of credit risk in the private credit space, while avoiding the negative carry of a physical short. The private credit market stabilizes or rallies, or the stress does not materialize in the public BDC complex within the option's timeframe.
BIZD SHORT
short-term (43 days to expiry)
The speaker stated the current oil shortage is 10-12 million barrels per day and that "prices will continue going up" until significant demand destruction occurs, which he models around $160/barrel. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, SPR releases only impact price differentials, and all other policy levers (Jones Act, sanctions exemptions) are exhausted or ineffective. The ongoing Iran conflict sustains the supply deficit. LONG because the fundamental supply/demand imbalance, exacerbated by the conflict, is expected to drive prices higher in the medium term. A sharp global recession or stagflation could destroy demand enough to reverse the price trend.
WTI NEUTRAL
medium-term
18:19
Mar 26
Mar 26
Macro Voices
2mo
URANIUM
SPY 1ST
GOLD 1ST
UUP
▾
Speaker states "the fundamentals are still uber bullish" with advanced reactor progress (Alawat Atomics test reactor) and NRC streamlining, but sector is high beta. Strong fundamentals support long-term upside; any Iran-induced market decline would create a dip-buying opportunity in uranium stocks. Long uranium, especially on market dips, to capture bullish trend. Broader market decline without recovery, or fundamental setbacks in nuclear adoption.
URANIUM LONG
medium-to-long term
Speaker says "I am not at all persuaded that the final bottom is in for equity markets," is "hedged for lower lows," and warns of downside risks from systematic selling, gamma exposure, and lack of catalyst. Market relief on Iran news is unwarranted; technical and flow dynamics (e.g., CTA deleveraging, dealer hedging) favor further downside unless capitulation or catalyst emerges. Avoid equity exposure due to elevated short-term downside risk. A sudden positive catalyst (e.g., Iran resolution) triggers a bullish reversal.
SPY AVOID
short-term
Speaker says "buy the dip on gold" is "the trade of the century," citing unchanged fundamentals (central bank diversification, bank targets ~$6000) despite correction from oil-induced inflation limiting Fed cuts. Correction due to higher yields competing with gold presents a long-term buying opportunity; technical support at 200-day MA (~4102) may hold. Long gold on dips to capitalize on eventual bullish resumption. Further Iran escalation drives dollar and yields higher, pushing gold below 200-day MA toward 3500.
GOLD LONG
long-term, with dip-buying short-term
Speaker notes bull flag pattern on dollar index, and "kinetic escalation is likely in Iran... that would likely bring a new higher high on the Dixie if it happens," but eventually expects reversal lower post-conflict. Escalation in Iran would drive safe-haven flows to dollar, potentially breaking 100 level led by euro weakness. Watch for breakout above 100 as a signal for short-term dollar strength. Conflict resolves quickly without escalation, negating bullish pressure.
UUP WATCH
short-term
18:11
Mar 26
Mar 26
Macro Voices
2mo
XLF
GLD
BTC
USD
▾
Speaker identifies private credit as a sector with "a lot of issues" due to rapid credit creation and loose lending standards, particularly exposed to software companies threatened by AI. She states it will be "a rough while" for private credit and private equity investors. Losses in private credit are expected to be significant for direct investors in those funds. However, the speaker strongly argues contagion risk to the broader US banking system is low due to banks' limited, senior exposure within their much larger asset base. AVOID direct investment in private credit funds, as they are the front-line risk-takers facing likely losses. The broader finance sector (banks) is viewed as insulated. A confluence of crises (e.g., high energy prices driving rates higher) could exacerbate private credit losses and create unexpected second-order contagion.
XLF AVOID
Medium-term.
Speaker states gold hit long-term price targets, no longer has asymmetric upside, and is in a "balanced range." It sold off during the crisis due to prior parabolic moves, potential forced liquidations, and because higher inflation signals tie the Fed's hands, boosting yields which compete with gold. The short-term technical and macro dynamics (higher yields, strong dollar) are negative, but the long-term fundamental driver of dedollarization and reserve asset diversification by central banks remains intact. WATCH for a buy-the-dip opportunity, as the long-term bull case is unchanged, but the timing of the bottom is uncertain given current negative momentum and macro pressures. A prolonged Iran conflict driving the dollar and yields significantly higher could push gold below its 200-day moving average (~$4100), triggering a deeper washout to $3500.
GLD WATCH
Medium-term to long-term.
Speaker notes Bitcoin held up "oddly well" in this crisis, unlike gold. This is attributed to its prior rough months which washed out sentiment and leverage, leaving it in "strong hands," and its potential utility as "portable scarce money" in a cross-border crisis. Bitcoin's relative strength vs. gold suggests a potential sentiment shift and a different fundamental profile during this specific liquidity/geopolitical crisis. WATCH for signs it is behaving as a risk-off or portable value asset. Its resilience in this environment is notable and warrants monitoring for a potential regime change in its correlation. The observed strength could simply be a function of its different starting point (oversold) rather than a new fundamental driver; a broader market crash could overwhelm it.
BTC WATCH
Short-term to medium-term.
Speaker proposes a trade to express the view that rising energy/food costs stress import-dependent economies. He states the cleanest way is via EUR/USD, as Europe acts like a large import-dependent economy, and sustained demand for dollars to fund imports pressures the euro lower. The thesis is that the terms-of-trade shock from the Iran conflict will disproportionately hurt the Eurozone, leading to capital flows into USD. SHORT EUR/USD. A defined-risk structure (e.g., short futures hedged with a call spread) is recommended to manage geopolitical headline risk. A rapid de-escalation in Iran, normalization of supply chains, or a stabilization in global growth would remove the downward pressure on the euro.
USD LONG
Short-term to medium-term.
18:00
Mar 26
Mar 26
Macro Voices
2mo
XLE
USD
EUR 1ST
XLF 1ST
GOLD
▾
Michael Every describes a scenario where a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz leads to crippling shortages of specific refined products (diesel, bunker, jet fuel) in Asia first, then globally, potentially halting trade. The energy market is already broken and segmented, with Asian spot prices far above benchmark futures. Physical shortages, not just high prices, become the dominant market driver in an extended crisis. The sector is at a critical inflection point (WATCH) where headlines and physical reality may diverge. The risk of exponential economic damage from physical shortages outweighs simple price appreciation. A swift diplomatic resolution and reopening of the Strait would rapidly normalize flows and collapse the risk premium, though physical damage to infrastructure could have longer-lasting effects.
XLE WATCH
short-term
Patrick Ceresna proposes shorting the Euro as the cleanest way to express the thesis that rising energy and food import costs create a direct terms-of-trade shock for Europe, similar to import-dependent emerging markets. Sustained high energy prices force European nations to demand more dollars to fund essential imports, creating persistent selling pressure on the Euro. The EUR/USD pair is a direct, liquid proxy for this macro view. He structures the idea with a defined-risk options overlay (short futures paired with a call spread) to hedge against headline-driven rallies. The trade loses its edge if oil prices roll over, supply chains normalize, or global growth stabilizes, removing the terms-of-trade pressure.
USD LONG
EUR SHORT
short-term to medium-term
Lyn Alden acknowledges "a lot of issues in private credit" due to rapid growth and loose lending standards, and states it will be "a rough while" for investors in that space. The space is a quickly growing, loosely regulated part of the financial economy where problems are likely to emerge. Stress could be exacerbated by higher interest rates resulting from stagflationary pressures. While contagion to the broad banking system is considered low, the asset class itself (private credit) is unattractive and facing headwinds, making it an area to AVOID for direct investment. A severe economic downturn triggered by the energy shock could cause defaults large enough to test her assessment of limited banking system contagion.
XLF AVOID
medium-term
Lyn Alden states that after hitting her long-term price targets, precious metals no longer have the "asymmetry" they once did and are now in a more "balanced range." She would not be surprised by a big sell-off or a continued march higher. The massive pre-war rally created sentiment exhaustion and volatility, making price action unreliable. The current sell-off could be driven by entities selling gold for liquidity ("selling what they can, not what they want"). The medium-term outlook is neutral/balanced. The asset requires monitoring (WATCH) for a new decisive catalyst or a return to attractive asymmetry, rather than having a clear directional edge. A resolution to the Iran conflict and a drop in oil prices could remove the pressure for liquidations and allow gold to resume its role as a hedge against a multi-polar financial system.
GOLD WATCH
medium-term
10:29
Mar 20
Mar 20
Macro Voices
2mo
COPPER
GOLD
URA
DXY
WEAT
▾
The speaker observes copper has decisively broken below its 100-day MA and appears headed toward its 200-day MA (~$5.38), citing "ominous signals" from across asset markets. The breakdown is linked to broad risk-off sentiment driven by the Iran conflict, with a reversal contingent on a conflict resolution. WATCH for further downside toward the 200-day MA under current geopolitical stress, implying a neutral-to-cautious stance until a reversal catalyst appears. A sudden, unexpected resolution to the Iran conflict that triggers a broad market reversal.
COPPER WATCH
Short-term.
The speaker notes gold is in a consolidation phase following a blowoff top, with analogies to past 2-4 month consolidations. He identifies $4,800 as first support and suggests a drop to $4,400-$4,500 could be a "compelling buy on dip." The technical view is that gold needs time to consolidate before attempting new highs, with a potential for a deeper correction within the ongoing bull trend. WATCH for a deeper correction to identified support levels to establish a long position, rather than advocating an immediate long or short. The consolidation pattern breaks down structurally, or geopolitical events abruptly re-establish gold's safe-haven correlation.
GOLD WATCH
Medium-term (into Q2).
The speaker states uranium fundamentals are "uber bullish" but expects the URA ETF to be pulled toward its 200-day moving average (~$46.03) in a broad risk-off environment, which would set up a "better and better buy the dip opportunity." Strong sector fundamentals are acknowledged, but near-term price action is expected to correlate with a broader market decline, creating a more attractive entry point. WATCH for a pullback to the 200-day MA as a potential long entry point within a strong structural bull trend. A broader market crash is so severe it overwhelms the strong sector fundamentals for an extended period.
URA WATCH
Short-to-medium term.
The speaker states the dollar's strength is driven by flight-to-safety flows from the Iran conflict and that "whenever it's over, that's the time I think you want to sell the dollar index." Upside is tied to worsening conflict and risk-off sentiment. Once the conflict winds down, the dollar is expected to be overbought and ripe for a correction, potentially resuming its prior primary downtrend. WATCH for a turning point. The view is to be ready to sell after the conflict concludes, implying a bearish outlook is deferred until that catalyst occurs. The Iran conflict resolves much sooner or much later than anticipated, or other fundamental drivers unexpectedly overshadow the safe-haven flow.
DXY WATCH
Short-to-medium term.
The speaker proposes a trade to express the view that food inflation is the underappreciated macro risk, using the WEAT ETF via a defined-risk call spread (buy Oct 2026 $25 call, sell $30 call) for a ~4:1 payoff ratio. The thesis is that tightening export flows and a net-short positioning backdrop in Chicago SRW wheat create potential for a sharp repricing if the food inflation narrative gains recognition. WATCH because the structure is a pre-positioned, limited-risk bet on a specific narrative gaining traction, not an outright long recommendation. The food inflation narrative fails to materialize or is already fully priced into elevated option volatility.
WEAT WATCH
Medium-term (through October 2026).
The speaker presents two opposing equity market outcomes based on the listener's geopolitical outlook: a "terrific buy the dip" setup if the Iran conflict is resolved quickly, or a potential cyclical bear market if it escalates into a prolonged conflict. The market's path is framed as entirely contingent on the duration and severity of the Iran conflict and its impact on oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz. WATCH because the direction is conditional and uncertain; the analysis is a framework for decision-making based on a future geopolitical resolution. A swift, unexpected resolution or a sudden, severe escalation not currently anticipated.
SPY WATCH
Short-to-medium term.
21:05
Mar 19
Mar 19
Macro Voices
2mo
XLF
WEAT
WTI
GOLD
BRN
▾
Simon White identified private credit as the "weakest link" in the credit cycle, citing rising redemptions, JP Morgan limiting lending to private funds, and markdowns in software company valuations that affect loan portfolios. He drew a direct parallel to the 2007 subprime crisis and CDO-squared structures. The opacity of private credit masks growing stress. Banks have significantly increased lending to non-bank financial institutions, creating a direct vector for risk transmission from private credit to the listed credit market and the broader economy. This sector requires close monitoring (WATCH) due to its high contagion risk and potential to trigger a systemic credit event, despite strong fundamentals in listed credit. The crisis is contained and resolved within the opaque private credit space without spilling over into the banking system or public markets.
XLF WATCH
medium-term
Patrick Ceresna proposed a trade to go long Chicago SRW wheat via the WEAT ETF, using a call spread (buy $25 call / sell $30 call) expiring Oct 16, 2026. The thesis is that food inflation is an underappreciated second-wave risk following the energy shock. Historical parallels (1970s) show food inflation had a larger CPI impact than energy. Current fertilizer supply disruptions and weather risks create a setup for tightening wheat markets, which is not yet fully priced. The defined-risk call spread structure offers a favorable payoff to position for a potential repricing of the food inflation narrative. Direction is LONG. The Iran conflict resolves quickly, fertilizer flows normalize, and global harvests are strong, negating the food inflation threat.
WEAT LONG
medium-term
Rory Johnston stated that physical crude in Dubai has traded at ~$150/bbl and jet fuel over $200/bbl in Singapore, but global benchmarks (Brent, WTI) have lagged due to location/time arbitrage and market expectation of a short war. He asserts the physical tightness will eventually converge with futures prices. The Strait of Hormuz closure has created a massive supply "air pocket." As Asian refineries realize the conflict may not end imminently, they will begin bidding for Atlantic Basin crudes (Brent, WTI), driving those benchmarks higher to reflect the global supply shock. Brent and WTI prices are likely to rise significantly to catch up to physical market tightness, making them assets to WATCH closely for a repricing event. An immediate and sustained ceasefire in the Iran conflict, leading to a rapid normalization of Strait traffic and a collapse in the regional physical premiums.
WTI WATCH
BRN WATCH
short-term to medium-term
Simon White stated gold is a hedge against both inflationary and deflationary tails, driven by its status as an unimpeachable form of collateral, diversification from the dollar system, and persistent geopolitical volatility. In an environment of extreme uncertainty where outcomes range from high inflation to a major credit event, investors seek proven portfolio protection. Gold's historical role and central bank demand provide this, and the core reasons for its rally remain intact. The primary bull trend is not over. Recent weakness is a consolidation within a longer-term uptrend, not a reversal, making it a LONG. A large, motivated seller emerging (e.g., a major central bank liquidating holdings) could force a bear market, but the speaker sees no source for this.
GOLD LONG
medium-term
20:56
Mar 19
Mar 19
Macro Voices
2mo
GOLD 1ST
WEAT 1ST
▾
Simon White stated gold is a hedge against both inflationary and deflationary tails, driven by need for unimpeachable collateral, diversification from the dollar system, and sustained central bank buying. These structural drivers remain valid—geopolitical volatility, demand for non-dollar assets, and lack of a large imminent seller—supporting the primary bull trend despite short-term weakness from rising real yields or dollar strength. LONG because gold’s role as portfolio insurance in uncertain macro environments with high inflation or credit event risks underpins continued appreciation. A significant seller emerges (e.g., central banks selling en masse) or a sharp, sustained rise in real yields and the dollar breaks the trend.
GOLD LONG
Medium-term to long-term.
Patrick Ceresna recommended going long Chicago SRW wheat via a call spread on the WEAT ETF (buy $25 call, sell $30 call, Oct 16, 2026 expiry) to position for rising food inflation. Food inflation is underappreciated; fertilizer costs are rising due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions (affecting urea, ammonia, sulfur), which historically lead food CPI higher by ~6 months, and tightening export flows support wheat prices. LONG via call spread to define risk while gaining leveraged exposure to a potential repricing as the food inflation narrative gains traction, using elevated implied volatility and right-tail skew advantageously. The food inflation narrative fails to materialize (e.g., swift geopolitical resolution eases fertilizer pressures) or wheat supply surprises to the upside.
WEAT LONG
Medium-term (trade structured for October 2026 expiration).
18:08
Mar 12
Mar 12
Macro Voices
2mo
GLD
TLT
URA 1ST
SPY
CCJ 1ST
▾
You sell what you can, not what you want. And what you can sell is the thing that has big unrealized gains and no momentum. Despite textbook geopolitical stress that should be bullish for precious metals, gold is being used as an ATM. Funds facing margin calls from equity drops or oil whipsaws are liquidating their profitable gold positions to raise cash. WATCH because while the long-term fundamentals for gold remain strong, near-term liquidity panics will continue to drag the price down until the broader market stabilizes. Central banks could step in with massive liquidity injections, immediately ending the margin call cascade and sending gold to new all-time highs.
GLD WATCH
short-term
If we have enough inflation now because of the rise in crude oil that we've seen and the rise in gasoline we've seen now to keep the inflation rate above three, the Fed is just off the table. The market has been conditioned to expect rate cuts at the first sign of economic wobble. However, energy-driven inflation prevents the Fed from easing. If they try to cut rates, bond vigilantes will sell off long-duration Treasuries to protect against negative real returns, driving yields higher. AVOID because long-duration bonds offer no protection in a stagflationary environment where the central bank is paralyzed by >3% inflation. A severe deflationary recession or a complete collapse in oil prices could force inflation back below 2%, giving the Fed cover to aggressively cut rates and sparking a bond rally.
TLT AVOID
medium-term
The Trump administration has given at least Department of Energy approval for a new nuclear power plant to be built in the United States, the first one in 50 years that's gotten approval. Agentic AI and massive data centers require more electricity than the current grid can provide. Tech hyperscalers are willing to fund their own power generation, and the regulatory environment is finally opening up for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) to meet this zero-emission baseload demand. LONG because the intersection of AI energy demands and deregulation is creating a generational renaissance for nuclear power and uranium demand. Environmental lobbies could successfully sue to block SMR deployments, or a broad market liquidity event could drag down uranium equities despite their strong fundamentals.
URA LONG
CCJ LONG
long-term
His desk specifically pointed to a 95-85 downside put spread as an efficient way to express that view. The market is showing structural stresses, private credit redemption pressures, and weak mega-cap leadership. Buying a defined-risk put spread (e.g., buying the 6425 put and selling the 5750 put) costs roughly 80 basis points but offers an 11:1 payout if the market drops 10% or more. SHORT because the broader market trend has shifted downward, and volatility is underpriced relative to the escalating geopolitical and structural risks. The geopolitical situation resolves peacefully, oil prices crash, and the market resumes its mega-cap tech-driven bull run, causing the put spread premium to expire worthless.
SPY SHORT
short-term
The reputation of Qatar and the UAE got tarnished right now as a secure supplier while the United States has no problem. So the LNG industry benefited. Asian countries rely heavily on the Strait of Hormuz for energy and fertilizers. To de-risk their supply chains, these nations will shift their long-term LNG contracts away from the Middle East and toward US-based infrastructure companies. LONG because US natural gas exporters are gaining a permanent geopolitical moat and market share due to Middle East instability. A rapid, permanent peace settlement in the Middle East could restore confidence in Qatar/UAE supplies, or US regulatory changes could cap LNG export capacity.
SRE NEUTRAL
LNG NEUTRAL
long-term
It will take about a couple of weeks to move all those ships out if everything ends. But to bring all that production back to previous levels will take a couple of months. The market prematurely sold off oil on headlines that the war was ending. However, the physical backlog of tankers and shut-in production means supply will remain constrained for months, forcing prices higher as global inventories (especially heavy crude) deplete. LONG because the physical market is tighter than the paper market is currently pricing, and the insurance standoff remains unresolved. The EU could immediately suspend the insurance cash requirements, allowing traffic to resume instantly and collapsing the geopolitical risk premium.
USO NEUTRAL
short-term
17:47
Mar 12
Mar 12
Macro Voices
2mo
QQQ
CF
AR
SPY
XLE
▾
Beneath the surface, there's still structural stresses building, particularly in private credit where redemption pressures continue to surface and in the systematic space where several flow triggers are now being hit. The market's underlying foundation is fragile, and mega-cap leadership is weakening. The recent relief rally provides an optimal, cheap window to reset downside hedges. Purchasing a 95-85 downside put spread offers an asymmetric 11 to 1 payoff profile if the market rolls over into a deeper correction. SHORT. The risk-to-reward ratio for hedging left-tail risk is highly favorable given the deteriorating internal market mechanics. The geopolitical situation resolves peacefully, oil prices collapse, and the Fed cuts rates, sparking a massive risk-on rally that renders the put spreads worthless.
QQQ SHORT
SPY SHORT
short-term
33 percent of the world traded fertilizers go through the Hormuz straight. Asian nations cannot produce their own fertilizers without the natural gas and NGLs imported from the Middle East. With those supplies cut off, these countries will face immediate agricultural shortfalls and will be forced to buy fertilizers and raw agricultural products directly from North American producers. LONG. North American fertilizer producers will see a massive demand spike as the Eastern hemisphere loses access to its primary supply chain. Global demand destruction for agriculture or a swift reopening of the straight that normalizes global shipping routes.
CF NEUTRAL
NTR NEUTRAL
MOS NEUTRAL
medium-term
The reputation of Qatar and the UAE got tarnished right now as a secure supplier while the United States has no problem. Asian countries rely heavily on Middle Eastern LNG and natural gas liquids. Because the Straight of Hormuz blockage has exposed the severe geopolitical vulnerability of relying on the Middle East, Asian buyers will be forced to sign long-term, premium-priced contracts with US LNG producers to secure reliable baseload energy. LONG. US natural gas and LNG exporters will capture permanent global market share due to Middle Eastern instability. A rapid and permanent peace agreement in the Middle East restores confidence in Qatari supply before long-term US contracts are finalized.
AR NEUTRAL
LNG NEUTRAL
EQT NEUTRAL
medium-term
The Straight of Hormuz was closed because of an insurance fiasco where EU companies canceled policies, trapping thousands of ships. The recent drop in oil prices from 119 to 88 dollars was driven by political rumors and market manipulation, not a physical resolution. Because it will take weeks to clear the shipping backlog and months to restore production even after the insurance issue is fixed, global heavy crude supply will remain severely constrained, forcing prices higher. LONG. The physical market reality of trapped oil will overpower short-term paper market manipulation. The EU immediately waives the cash solvency requirements for maritime insurance, allowing ships to transit and rapidly flooding the market with delayed supply.
XLE NEUTRAL
OXY NEUTRAL
USO NEUTRAL
short-term
The tech companies are pretty good at innovating technology and deploying it quickly. I think you could see the AI industry supplying net energy to the rest of the world. Tech hyperscalers are desperate for massive amounts of electricity to power Agentic AI data centers. With the NRC recently approving the first non-water-cooled civilian nuclear reactor in 52 years, tech companies will use their massive capital to bypass traditional utilities and directly fund Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), driving a structural supercycle for uranium and nuclear technology. LONG. The convergence of AI power demands and deregulation will ignite a privately funded nuclear renaissance. The environmental lobby successfully blocks the construction of new nuclear facilities, or tech companies pivot to alternative baseload energy sources like geothermal.
CCJ NEUTRAL
SMR NEUTRAL
URA NEUTRAL
long-term
You sell what you can, not what you want. And what you can sell is the thing that has big unrealized gains and no momentum. Despite a major geopolitical escalation and an oil price spike, gold prices dropped 400 dollars. Investors are using gold as a source of liquidity, selling their winning positions to meet margin calls on other volatile, losing assets. This liquidity-driven selling pressure overrides gold's traditional safe-haven status in the near term. AVOID. During acute liquidity panics, gold correlates to 1 with risk assets as it is sold to raise cash. The liquidity panic subsides quickly, allowing gold to resume its structural bull market driven by central bank buying and fiat debasement fears.
GLD AVOID
short-term
Price of gasoline is up 18 percent or 55 cents. All things being equal, that is probably going to push year-over-year inflation over 3 percent for March. The Federal Reserve cannot safely cut interest rates if inflation re-accelerates above 3 percent. If the Fed attempts to ease financial conditions to save a wobbling stock market while inflation is rising, bond traders will dump long-term treasuries to protect their real returns, driving yields higher and bond prices lower. SHORT. Sticky inflation driven by energy shocks removes the "Fed Put" for the bond market. A severe economic recession or credit event outweighs inflation fears, causing a massive deflationary flight to safety in long-duration bonds.
TLT SHORT
medium-term
17:45
Mar 12
Mar 12
Macro Voices
2mo
URA
SPY 1ST
CCJ
GLD
USO
▾
The fundamentals are still uber bullish and they're getting better by the day... but if the market broadly is going to continue selling off, which it may... it will probably take uranium back down with it. The macro thesis for a nuclear energy renaissance is strengthening, but uranium equities remain highly correlated to broad market beta during risk-off periods. If the S&P 500 experiences a panic sell-off, it will drag uranium stocks down to their 200-day moving averages, creating a highly asymmetric "buy the dip" entry point for long-term investors. WATCH uranium equities for a broad market capitulation to establish long positions at discounted valuations. The broader market stabilizes without a deep sell-off, and uranium breaks out technically, causing investors waiting for a dip to miss the move.
URA WATCH
CCJ WATCH
medium-term
Beneath the surface, there's still structural stresses building, particularly in private credit where redemption pressures continue to surface and in the systematic space where several flow triggers are now being hit. Weakness in mega-cap leadership and underlying structural stresses mean the market is highly vulnerable to a sudden 10+% drop. Buying defined-risk downside convexity, such as a 95/85 put spread, costs a very small percentage of portfolio value (roughly 80 basis points) but offers an asymmetric 11:1 payoff if these fragilities trigger a broad market liquidation. SHORT the broader equity index using put spreads to hedge against left-tail risk while managing premium costs. Geopolitical tensions de-escalate and the market grinds higher, causing the hedge premium to expire worthless.
SPY SHORT
QQQ SHORT
short-term
The downside risk here, though, is not that fundamentals have changed... The issue is what happens if everybody else starts selling their gold in order to meet margin calls on other things. Gold is in a structural bull market, but during a severe liquidity panic, investors sell winning assets to cover margin calls on losing ones (as seen in 2008). Implementing a cashless collar strategy allows an investor to maintain long exposure to the structural bull thesis while funding downside protection by selling upside calls, neutralizing the risk of a broad market liquidation event. LONG gold using a cashless collar to stay invested while hedging against a liquidity-driven flush. Gold experiences a massive upside breakout, and the short call limits the investor's ability to capture the full extent of the gains.
GLD NEUTRAL
medium-term
The dip was bought at fib zones. And so, the idea here that oil can still surge higher is something you can't rule out. Unresolved insurance issues blocking traffic in the Strait of Hormuz create a fat right-tail risk for global energy markets. Because the velocity of the move is high and technical analysis is difficult, using bull call spreads allows investors to capture potential upside spikes while strictly defining their risk if the geopolitical situation suddenly resolves. LONG oil via bull call spreads to participate in upside volatility with capped downside. The insurance dispute is swiftly resolved, allowing normal transit to resume and causing oil prices to gap down.
USO LONG
short-term
22:53
Mar 05
Mar 05
Macro Voices
3mo
SPY
UUP
OWL 1ST
GLD
USO 1ST
▾
"Technicals are deteriorating, leadership is lacking, and we have geopolitical shocks driving oil higher alongside credit stresses emergent in the system... upside potential looks limited." When the market is top-heavy and facing binary geopolitical risks (Iran), simply holding long exposure is dangerous. A "Collar" strategy (buying a put, selling a call) finances protection against a crash while accepting capped upside. The specific trade is an S&P 500 Collar: Buy April 2026 Put (approx 5% OTM) and Sell Call (approx 3% OTM). This is a volatility dampener. A massive "melt-up" or squeeze above the sold call strike would result in missed opportunity (opportunity cost), though nominal losses are hedged.
SPY NEUTRAL
medium-term
"Institutional finance is driven by written mandates... They have to go to US dollar treasuries as their safety trade... That in turn ignites a short squeeze." Despite long-term de-dollarization narratives, the immediate mechanical reaction to war is a flight to the USD. The Dollar Index (DXY) broke 99.12 and has room to the 100 handle. LONG USD. The technical breakout neutralizes the previous bear trend. If the conflict is seen as isolating the US or if the Fed pivots dovishly, the dollar could revert to its downtrend.
UUP LONG
short-term
"Credit stresses emergent in the system like we've seen around Blue Owl... looming private credit collapse." Eric explicitly names Blue Owl (OWL) as a symptom of systemic stress and mentions a "looming private credit collapse." If private credit is the next bubble to burst, major players in this space (Blue Owl, Blackstone, KKR) face significant headwinds and book value mark-downs. AVOID or SHORT the private credit asset managers. Central banks may intervene with liquidity to prop up credit markets, or the "soft landing" narrative could persist, supporting asset valuations.
OWL AVOID
KKR AVOID
BX AVOID
medium-term
"Gold has spent at least 2 to four months in some sort of absorption consolidation... curbing my enthusiasm that it all happens here in the first quarter." Gold acted strangely (dropping) during the initial war news, likely due to a dollar spike. Technically, it needs to digest recent gains. It is not a short, but immediate upside is capped by the need for consolidation. NEUTRAL / WATCH. Wait for the 2-4 month consolidation to finish before adding aggressive longs. If the dollar spikes parabolically (DXY > 105), gold could suffer a deeper drawdown.
GLD WATCH
short-term
"Iran is the driver of the big spike upward in oil prices... I don't think it's going to die down anytime soon." The conflict involves the Strait of Hormuz. Time spreads are outperforming flat price (backwardation), indicating physical tightness. Even if the initial spike fades, the structural risk premium is now higher. LONG Oil via futures or ETFs. Eric is holding long-dated spreads (Dec '26/Dec '27). A rapid de-escalation or ceasefire would remove the war premium immediately.
USO LONG
medium-term
"The URA ETF retested its 50 and 100 day moving averages as support... If that happens [deeper market dip], I say it's a buy the dip opportunity." Uranium fundamentals remain intact despite the geopolitical noise. The sell-off is correlated to the broad market, not the commodity itself. Therefore, lower prices are an entry point, not a structural exit signal. LONG Uranium miners on weakness. A full-scale liquidity crunch (market crash) would drag all equities down, including uranium miners, regardless of commodity fundamentals.
URA LONG
medium-term
18:20
Mar 05
Mar 05
Macro Voices
3mo
CCJ 1ST
UUP 1ST
OKLO 1ST
SPY
URA 1ST
▾
Loszak argues the only way to meet AI energy demand is to "mass-produce entire modular nuclear power plants... in gigafactories" rather than building bespoke reactors on-site. He explicitly mentions Oklo as a peer and notes hyperscalers need "speed" over everything else. Alo Atomics is private. To express this thesis in public markets, one must look at the direct competitors mentioned (Oklo), the owners of the SMR designs discussed (GE Vernova via GE Hitachi, Cameco via Westinghouse), and the fuel source (Uranium ETF) which Patrick explicitly calls a "buy the dip." LONG. The "Henry Ford moment" for nuclear changes the unit economics from cost-prohibitive to competitive with gas, specifically for data centers. Regulatory delays (NRC) or supply chain breaks when scaling from 10 to 10,000 units per year.
CCJ LONG
OKLO LONG
URA LONG
GEV LONG
long-term
"A substantial reversal of the dollar trend... The dollar strengthening here seems to have room to come to the top of the trade range near the 100 handle." In times of kinetic war, institutional mandates force capital into US Treasuries/Dollar for safety, overriding long-term bearish fundamentals. The Euro breakdown further supports the DXY (UUP) rally. LONG. Momentum and safety flows are driving a short squeeze on the Dollar. Fed intervention or a rapid shift in global sentiment regarding US foreign policy.
UUP LONG
short-term
"Upside potential looks limited, and it's a critical time to consider an overlay that helps hedge and dampen downside volatility." With the S&P 500 at 6880 and geopolitical risks escalating (Iran), the probability of a melt-up is lower than a correction. A "Collar" strategy (Long Put + Short Call) neutralizes the position—sacrificing upside to fund downside protection without selling the underlying portfolio. NEUTRAL (Hedge). Implement a collar: Buy downside Put (approx 5% OTM), Sell upside Call (approx 3% OTM) to finance it. If the market melts up significantly (e.g., "war rally"), the short call will cap gains, leading to underperformance.
SPY NEUTRAL
short-term
"Gold has spent at least 2 to 4 months in some sort of absorption consolidation... curbing my enthusiasm that it all happens here in the first quarter." Despite the war, gold dropped, indicating a technical dislocation or liquidity event. The asset needs time to repair technical damage and consolidate recent gains before the next leg up. WATCH. Wait for the consolidation phase to finish before adding new long exposure. If the Dollar spikes significantly higher, gold could break lower support levels.
GLD WATCH
medium-term
"The war risk premium [is] sharply advancing oil prices... Time spreads are outperforming the flat price." The conflict in Iran threatens the Strait of Hormuz. While Patrick took profits on summer tranches, he holds Z6/Z7 spreads. For a general investor, the spot price (tracked by USO) will continue to price in supply disruption risk until the strait is clearly open. LONG. Structural bull trend remains until geopolitical clarity emerges. Sudden de-escalation or ceasefire would cause the "war premium" to evaporate rapidly.
USO LONG
medium-term
18:19
Mar 05
Mar 05
Macro Voices
3mo
UNG
AR 1ST
USO
GLD
SLV 1ST
▾
Currie argues that while nuclear is the ideal power source for AI, "that's not going to happen for another two decades." He explicitly states, "What's your best bet for today? It's going to be natural gas." Data centers require immediate, 24/7 baseload power. Renewables are intermittent, and nuclear has long lead times. Natural gas is the only bridge fuel capable of meeting the surging AI electricity demand in the short-to-medium term. Long Natural Gas futures or producers. A mild winter or faster-than-expected efficiency gains in AI compute reducing power needs.
UNG LONG
AR LONG
EQT LONG
medium-term
Currie disputes the "oil glut" narrative, pointing out that "OECD inventories are lower today than they were a year ago" and the market is backwardated (bullish structure). The current price weakness is driven by "paper market" liquidity and algorithms trading sentiment rather than physical fundamentals. Once the "tricks" (ignoring sanctions on Iran/Russia) are exhausted, the physical tightness will force prices higher. Long Oil exposure to capture the mean reversion from sentiment to physical reality. A global recession crushing demand or a peace deal with Iran bringing legitimate supply back online.
USO LONG
XLE LONG
medium-term
Currie states that de-dollarization has accelerated since the US seized Russian assets in 2022. He notes, "You don't want to own dollar assets because the Americans can employ sanctions on you." This geopolitical fear forces central banks and sovereigns to hoard physical metal (Gold/Silver) as a reserve asset, creating price-insensitive demand that overrides traditional rate correlations. Long precious metals as a geopolitical shield. A sudden de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or a strengthening US dollar resolving the "bad character" perception of fiat.
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
long-term
Currie discusses a coming "liquidity explosion" driven by the tokenization of real-world assets. He explicitly mentions his role as a director at Abaxx Technologies, which is building markets for LNG and battery metals. The convergence of AI, blockchain (Web3), and commodities allows for trading "downstream" assets (like specific grades of lithium or regional gas) that were previously illiquid. Abaxx is the infrastructure play for this new market structure. Long Abaxx Technologies (US OTC ticker). Regulatory hurdles for tokenized assets or failure of the exchange to gain liquidity/traction.
ABXXF LONG
long-term
Patrick notes Gold has finished its correction and is resuming its uptrend, but volatility remains a risk. To maintain a core long position while protecting against another "shakeout," he suggests an options collar: Buying a protective put funded by selling an upside call. Long GLD with a "90x120 Collar" (Buy 430 Put, Sell 575 Call, exp May 2026). Capping upside if Gold goes parabolic above $575 (on GLD ETF).
GLD LONG
medium-term
Patrick notes that the pullback in Uranium has been a "traditional retracement" and the primary trend of higher highs remains intact. The technical structure suggests the correction is healthy, offering a tactical entry point within a secular bull market for nuclear fuel. Long Uranium miners/physical trusts on dips. Continued regulatory delays in reactor restarts or a broader risk-off market event.
URA LONG
medium-term
Patrick highlights a massive divergence: "Semiconductor ETF breaking to fresh new highs... yet on the software side getting hammered." The market is bifurcated. Capital is flowing specifically into hardware/infrastructure (Semis/AI chips) while rotating out of software/SaaS. Investors should respect this momentum divergence rather than fighting it. Long Semis (SMH), Avoid Software (IGV). A failure in Nvidia earnings or a broader tech valuation reset dragging down semis.
SMH LONG
short-term
17:56
Feb 26
Feb 26
Macro Voices
3mo
URA
NVDA 1ST
IGV
EWY 1ST
USO
▾
"The entire pullback on the U308 has been just a traditional retracement. So the primary trend of higher highs, higher lows... remain intact." The recent consolidation in uranium miners is healthy technical behavior within a larger bull market. The resumption of the uptrend warrants long exposure. Buy the dip/retracement in Uranium miners. Erik Townsend notes short-term indicators (stochastics) are high, suggesting a potential swing trade lower into next week before the rally resumes.
URA LONG
medium-term
"We continued to see... the semiconductor ETF chart breaking to fresh new highs with Nvidia just beating on its earnings." The AI hardware narrative is decoupling from the broader software market. Momentum traders should stick with the strength in semis as they are the only group holding up the broader indices. Long exposure to semiconductors remains the play as they break out to fresh highs. If Nvidia gives back its post-earnings gains, it would be a "structural blow" to the entire sector.
NVDA LONG
SMH LONG
short-term
"It has a huge and substantial correction occurring in the financial sector and in the software stocks." While semis rally, the "application layer" of tech is breaking down. Capital is rotating out of software, making it a dangerous sector to hold until stabilization occurs. Avoid software ETFs (like IGV) until the correction resolves. A sudden rotation back into laggards if yields drop significantly.
IGV AVOID
medium-term
"The Cosby, the South Korean index, which is going full-on parabolic." South Korea is a major beneficiary of the semiconductor/AI boom (Samsung/SK Hynix). The "parabolic" move suggests strong momentum inflows that can be captured via the US-listed ETF. Long South Korea via EWY to capture the momentum breakout. Parabolic moves are prone to sharp mean-reversion corrections.
EWY LONG
short-term
"Over the last two months, oil has been very well accumulated. All supports and sell-offs have been held... everything technically remains bullish." Despite the risk of a "peace dividend" drop if Iran tensions cool, the technical accumulation pattern suggests the path of least resistance is higher. The market is coiled for a headline-driven surge. Maintain long exposure, respecting the primary bull trend. Erik Townsend notes that if the Iran strike is "off the table," prices could drop to the low 60s/high 50s.
USO LONG
medium-term
"The strength that we've seen in that US dollar over the last month has done nothing but a 50% retrace back to the 50-day moving average... The primary downtrend is still intact." The Dollar is at a critical "fulcrum" (98 level on DXY). It is technically a short-selling location within a downtrend, but a break above 98 would invalidate the bearish thesis. Watch the 98 level (DXY). If it holds as resistance, the downtrend to 94-95 resumes. If it breaks, the trend pivots. A geopolitical "risk-off" impulse could force a flight to safety, pushing the Dollar above resistance.
UUP NEUTRAL
short-term
"The market is still trading sideways at best... flirting with the 100 day moving average support... Just concerned that if we do retest the 100 day and it doesn't hold, there's no obvious support until the 200 day." The S&P 500 is being propped up solely by MegaCap Tech (specifically Semis). Market breadth is poor (Financials/Software correcting). The risk/reward for new broad market longs is poor here. Neutral/Caution. Watch the 100-day moving average; a break is a signal to de-risk or short. A "melt-up" driven by Nvidia dragging the rest of the market higher.
SPY NEUTRAL
short-term
"Gold isn't trading like a simple inflation hedge anymore. It's increasingly behaving like a geopolitical reserve asset... reserve diversification into bullion become structural, not cyclical." The 20% correction in gold is likely complete. Rather than timing a perfect entry, investors should maintain core long exposure but hedge against a final shakeout using options skew (expensive upside calls subsidizing downside puts). Execute a 90x120 collar. Buy the May 2026 $430 Put, Sell the May 2026 $575 Call for a net debit of ~$3. This defines risk 10% lower while allowing ~20% upside. A de-escalation of geopolitical tensions could reduce the "fear premium" in gold temporarily.
GLD LONG
medium-term
17:54
Feb 26
Feb 26
Macro Voices
3mo
EQT 1ST
RRC 1ST
ABXXF 1ST
USO 1ST
RTX 1ST
▾
AI compute demand is creating an energy crisis. While Nuclear is the ideal solution, it takes decades to build. Natural Gas is the only scalable, immediate power source to bridge the gap between current AI demand and future Nuclear capacity. Jeff notes that while gas prices crashed from $7 to $3.20, the demand floor from data centers is rising. Long Natural Gas exposure. The current price weakness is a buying opportunity before the "summer of 2026" demand shock from cooling and data centers hits. Warm winter weather or faster-than-expected efficiency gains in AI chips (reducing power consumption) could keep gas prices depressed.
EQT LONG
RRC LONG
UNG LONG
medium-term
Jeff is a non-executive director at Abaxx Technologies. He highlights the need for better market infrastructure to trade "downstream" commodities like LNG and Lithium. The convergence of Web 3.0 (ledger technology) and AI allows for the creation of new, granular commodity markets that were previously impossible to trade. Abaxx is building the exchange infrastructure for these specific physical assets (LNG, Carbon). Long Abaxx as a play on the "Liquidity Explosion" in commodity trading infrastructure. Regulatory hurdles, technology adoption failure, or competition from established exchanges (CME/ICE).
ABXXF LONG
long-term
Global oil inventories are lower today than a year ago, yet the price is suppressed by algorithmic trading and negative sentiment. The "Oil Glut" narrative has zero fundamental evidence. The market is physically tight but financially loose. Eventually, a physical catalyst (like a supply disruption in Iran or simple inventory exhaustion) will force the "paper" market to realign with the "physical" reality. Long Oil. The risk/reward is skewed to the upside as the "artificial" price suppression cannot last against physical shortages. A deep global recession destroying demand or a sudden peace deal with sanctioned nations (Iran/Russia) bringing supply back online.
USO LONG
XLE LONG
short-term
De-globalization has led to the "weaponization of supply chains." Europe is committing 5% of GDP to defense. This is not just about buying weapons; it is about securing commodity supply chains. Defense spending is effectively commodity-intensive spending. Jeff explicitly mentions Carlyle's positioning in Aerospace and Defense to capture this trend. Long Defense and Aerospace prime contractors who benefit from the structural shift toward re-militarization and supply chain security. Government budget cuts or a sudden geopolitical de-escalation reducing defense appropriations.
RTX LONG
ITA LONG
LMT LONG
long-term
We are seeing the "weaponization of the periodic table." Supply constraints are severe due to years of underinvestment, while demand is turbocharged by electrification, defense spending (5% of GDP in Europe), and AI data centers. Unlike the 2010s "asset-light" tech boom, the current cycle is "asset-heavy." AI requires physical infrastructure. Copper is the critical constraint for both the grid and data centers. Jeff explicitly notes that owning the equities (miners) offers a smoother ride than the physical commodities. Long copper miners as the primary beneficiaries of the "Bits meet Atoms" convergence. A global recession or a collapse in AI capex spending would temporarily crush industrial metal demand.
COPX LONG
SCCO LONG
FCX LONG
long-term
Gold has corrected roughly 20% peak-to-trough but the long-term structural bull market driven by de-dollarization and central bank hoarding remains intact. In a sanctions-heavy world, gold is a reserve asset, not just a trade. However, volatility is high. To manage this, investors should maintain core long exposure but hedge the "fat right tail" skew. Implement a "Collar" strategy. With GLD at $476, Buy the May 2026 430 Put and Sell the May 2026 575 Call. This finances downside protection by capping extreme upside, creating a defined risk envelope. A de-escalation of geopolitical tensions or a sudden strengthening of the US Dollar could suppress gold prices below the put strike, though the hedge protects against crash risk.
GLD LONG
medium-term
17:54
Feb 19
Feb 19
Macro Voices
3mo
URA
USO
NVDA
SMH
ODFL 1ST
▾
Patrick notes that Uranium has put in a swing low and technicals are set up for a move higher, with slow stochastics aligning for a buy. The structural energy demand for AI and re-industrialization (mentioned by Every) requires baseload power. Nuclear remains the primary solution, keeping a floor under uranium prices despite broader market volatility. LONG Uranium miners/holders on the technical swing setup. A broad market "risk-off" event or an unwind of the AI trade could drag commodities down with equities.
URA LONG
CCJ LONG
short-term
Crude oil has been resilient, holding above the 50-day moving average with "accumulated market" characteristics. Geopolitical tension (Iran) provides a premium. Despite the "threat" of peace or negotiation, the technical structure shows higher highs and higher lows. The market is pricing in supply constraints or conflict, making the trend bullish until proven otherwise. LONG Oil via ETFs or Futures. A definitive "no strike" announcement regarding Iran could cause a rapid liquidation of the war premium.
USO LONG
short-term
The Semiconductor index (SMH) has been weak, and the entire market is waiting on Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. Nvidia is the linchpin. If it fails to perform, the "Mag 7" weakness will drag the entire S&P 500 lower. This is not a trade to front-run, but a signal to watch for broader market direction. WATCH for the earnings reaction to determine broad market exposure. A massive beat could reignite the AI bubble; a miss could crash the Nasdaq.
NVDA WATCH
SMH WATCH
short-term
Every notes that freight companies are reporting a pickup in logistics *within* the US (internal shipping), rather than just imports from ports. This indicates the "re-industrialization" thesis is moving from theory to reality. If goods are being moved between US factories rather than just from Long Beach to warehouses, domestic logistics networks (Trucking and Rail) will see volume expansion independent of global trade health. LONG domestic US logistics and transport. A recession caused by high rates crushing consumer demand before the industrial base is fully built.
ODFL LONG
UNP LONG
JBHT LONG
medium-term
Every is skeptical that Gold can coexist as a primary reserve asset if the US successfully launches a dominant USD Stablecoin ecosystem. If the US digitizes the dollar and offers yield on stablecoins (backed by T-bills), the utility of Gold as a non-yielding store of value diminishes for US allies. Gold becomes the currency of the "opposing block" (China/Russia), limiting its liquidity in Western markets. NEUTRAL/WATCH. Patrick also notes Gold is in a consolidation phase after a violent correction. If the USD Stablecoin project fails or trust in the US government collapses, Gold would likely skyrocket.
GLD NEUTRAL
medium-term
Every states that the US administration is likely to push "US Dollar Stablecoins" to fund the government, predicting "trillions" in inflows. He notes the "Clarity Act" is the key legislation to watch. If the US government sanctions stablecoins as the preferred tool for global trade and T-bill funding, the regulated infrastructure providers (custodians and issuers) become systemically important. Coinbase (COIN) is the primary regulated US entity facilitating USDC and institutional crypto infrastructure. LONG the infrastructure of the "Stablecoin Arms Race." The "Clarity Act" fails to pass or the Fed launches a CBDC that competes directly with private stablecoins.
COIN LONG
long-term
17:43
Feb 19
Feb 19
Macro Voices
3mo
URNM
USO
URA
NVDA
SMH
▾
Eric states the "swing low is probably in and the technical setup looks good for another leg higher." Patrick adds that "dips are being bought" and the bull trend is intact. The sector is holding key support levels and moving averages. Unless there is a broad market liquidation or an unwind of the AI trade, the technicals favor a move up. LONG Uranium miners as a swing trade. Broad market weakness or an "AI trade unwind" could drag this sector down despite good specific technicals.
URNM LONG
URA LONG
medium-term
Patrick observes that Crude Oil has "spent over a month above the 50-day moving average, higher highs and higher lows... structurally an accumulated market." Despite bad news events, dips are being bought aggressively. This technical resilience suggests the path of least resistance is higher, potentially targeting last summer's highs (low 70s). LONG Oil on technical strength and accumulation patterns. If the "Iran strike" rumors prove to be a bluff and no action occurs, a short-term sell-off may occur (Eric's view).
USO LONG
medium-term
Patrick points out that the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has been in a bull trend "without Nvidia's participation," yet NVDA makes up 20% of the index. The market cannot sustain a rally if the "Mag 7s" don't join. If NVDA earnings disappoint and the stock breaks to lower lows, it will "break the semiconductor index and probably open up the floodgate on the downside." WATCH NVDA earnings as a binary pivot point for the broader tech sector. An earnings beat could reignite the rally.
NVDA WATCH
SMH WATCH
short-term
Patrick notes a "very decisive breakdown in yields" on the 10-year note, moving from 4.25% down to 4.05%. Bonds are strengthening as yields fall. The market is a "stone's throw" from the 4% level. If this trend continues, it signals a shift toward lower rates and higher bond prices. LONG Treasuries (betting on lower yields). Reversal in inflation expectations or economic data.
IEF LONG
TLT LONG
short-term
Eric notes the market is "trading below the 50-day moving average" and just above the "6,800 trip wire where a lot of systematic trading will accelerate on the downside." The upcoming midterm elections represent a "massive fork in the road" creating uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty. Therefore, downside risk increases as the election date approaches, making left tails fatter than right tails. SHORT / HEDGE equity exposure due to political uncertainty and technical weakness. Republicans unexpectedly gaining ground early could reduce uncertainty; a "miracle" retention of Congress would be bullish.
SPY NEUTRAL
medium-term
21:39
Feb 12
Feb 12
Macro Voices
3mo
EQT
GEV
USO
UNG
SMH
▾
AI is an existential "arms race" requiring massive energy. Nuclear takes 10+ years to build. Gas turbines have a 6-year order backlog. The hyperscalers (Tech Giants) cannot wait for nuclear. They will force a "wartime" build-out of Natural Gas power plants as the only viable interim solution. This creates a squeeze on natural gas prices (UNG/EQT) and the manufacturers of gas turbines (GE Vernova - GEV). LONG. Bet on the "bridge fuel" and the infrastructure required to burn it. Government intervention/price controls on energy, or a faster-than-expected breakthrough in SMR (Small Modular Reactor) deployment.
EQT NEUTRAL
GEV NEUTRAL
UNG NEUTRAL
Long-term
Crude oil price action is "accumulative." Every dip is bought, and prices are holding above the 50-day moving average despite a lack of bullish headlines. When an asset refuses to go down despite neutral news, it indicates underlying demand (likely physical market tightness). The path of least resistance has flipped to the upside. LONG. Trend following the established bull channel. Political intervention (Trump administration) to artificially suppress oil prices before midterms.
USO LONG
Short-term
The NASDAQ 100 is struggling due to weakness in Software and Mag7 stocks, but the Semiconductor sector is making fresh 52-week highs. The market is bifurcating. Capital is fleeing overvalued software but pouring into the "pick and shovel" hardware providers essential for the AI arms race. Strength begets strength in this sector. LONG. Follow the relative strength leader (Semis) rather than trying to catch falling knives in Software. A broader recession that cuts IT spending, or trade restrictions with China impacting chip sales.
SMH LONG
Short-term
Uranium miners have corrected sharply, clearing out overbought technical conditions, but the long-term fundamental demand from the AI/Energy thesis remains intact. The recent sell-off was a "shakeout of weak hands" (likely margin calls from precious metals traders). The structural deficit in uranium supply has not changed, making this dip an entry point for the next leg of the bull market. LONG. Re-enter the nuclear fuel cycle trade after the technical washout. A liquidity event in broader markets dragging down all commodities, or a nuclear accident.
CCJ LONG
URA LONG
UEC LONG
Medium-term
Silver and Gold have had massive multi-year runs (Silver to $115 in this scenario). Platinum has remained dormant for much longer and is only just starting to move. Precious metals move in non-simultaneous cycles. Gold went first, then Silver. Platinum is historically cheap relative to peers and has not yet had its "catch-up" phase. LONG. Rotate out of overheated Silver/Gold into the lagging Platinum. Industrial demand for Platinum (catalytic converters) collapses faster than investment demand can compensate.
PPLT NEUTRAL
Medium-term
Japanese bond yields have risen significantly (touching 4% in this scenario), yet the Yen remains extremely weak against the Dollar and Swiss Franc. The yield curve in Japan is steep. This creates a "Perfect Trade" setup similar to the US in 2014. High yields + Cheap Currency = Capital Inflow. As investors realize they can get yield *and* currency appreciation, capital will repatriate to Japan, driving a powerful Yen rally. LONG. The trade structure (long Yen, long JGBs) benefits if the BOJ tightens (currency up) or stays loose (bond roll-down). Patrick Ceresna adds a specific call option structure to limit risk. The Bank of Japan maintains ultra-loose policy indefinitely, causing the Yen to devalue further into a spiral.
FXY NEUTRAL
Medium-term
21:36
Feb 12
Feb 12
Macro Voices
3mo
FXY 1ST
SMH 1ST
TLT 1ST
USO
GLD
▾
Japan is no longer a "one-way weak yen forever" trade; yields have risen and the curve has steepened, yet the Yen remains at extreme lows. When higher yields pair with a cheap currency, capital eventually flows back in (repatriation). The setup is asymmetric: if the BOJ tightens, the unwind of Yen-funded carry trades could drive a rapid appreciation. Long Yen exposure via options allows for convexity if the currency snaps back, while capping risk if the drift continues. The Bank of Japan remains overly cautious, keeping the carry trade alive longer than expected.
FXY LONG
medium-term
The NASDAQ 100 has failed to reclaim its 50-day moving average, driven by weakness in software stocks. However, Semiconductors are making fresh 52-week highs. Capital is rotating within the tech sector. While the broader index and software struggle with overhead resistance, the momentum and relative strength are concentrated purely in hardware/semiconductors. Long Semiconductors as the clear leader in a bifurcated tech market. If the "Mag 7" generally roll over, they could drag the high-flying semi sector down with them.
SMH LONG
short-term
10-Year Treasury yields have reversed off the 4.30% level and are trending back down toward 4%. The bond market is signaling a resumption of the downtrend in yields. Lower yields equate to higher bond prices. Long duration bonds (via TLT) to capture capital appreciation as yields compress. Inflation data surprises to the upside, forcing yields back above the 4.30% resistance.
TLT LONG
short-term
Crude oil price action is "surprisingly accumulative," holding well above the 50-day MA despite bearish narratives. The market is ignoring negative headlines, establishing a new bull trend. When bad news fails to lower prices, the path of least resistance is usually up. Long flat price targeting 2025 highs. Eric Townsend notes that President Trump may utilize extreme measures to suppress energy prices ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
USO LONG
medium-term
After a steep correction, Gold is likely to enter a consolidation phase, with rallies being faded. Markets rarely V-bottom after such volatility. The "fair value" zone needs to be re-established between the 50-day MA and recent lows before a new trend can start. Neutral/Hold. Expect rangebound trading for Q1. A break below $4,500 (futures basis) could trigger a deeper liquidation event.
GLD NEUTRAL
medium-term
Software stocks broke below the 50-day moving average and have failed to rally back above it. This technical failure indicates institutional distribution. Unlike semis, software is the "heavy" part of the market dragging the NASDAQ down. Avoid software exposure until it reclaims key technical levels. A sudden rotation back into software if yields drop significantly.
IGV AVOID
short-term
Uranium has corrected from extreme overbought conditions, bouncing right at the 50-day moving average and clearing out "weak hands." The structural bull market remains intact. The recent dip provided a technical reset, allowing for a new entry point in a long-term energy thesis. Long Uranium miners. "Contagion risk" — if Gold/Silver crash, investors facing margin calls on metals may be forced to liquidate profitable Uranium positions to cover losses.
URA LONG
long-term
18:39
Feb 05
Feb 05
Macro Voices
3mo
QQQ
UNG 1ST
URA 1ST
SPY
EQT 1ST
▾
"Tech software ETF... we have a 30% crash in this ETF as it has broken all support lines... Markets looking heavy with some serious cracks emerging in the tech space." Software is a leading indicator for the broader tech sector. With the "Mag 7" earnings disappointing and key technical levels breaking, the S&P 500 is vulnerable to a systematic sell-off. SHORT. A sudden liquidity injection or dovish pivot from the Fed could reverse the breakdown.
QQQ WATCH
SPY WATCH
IGV SHORT
short-term
"So many people are counting on nuclear energy [for AI]... I don't think that the people expecting that understand the lead time... natural gas is going to have to stand in." The AI boom requires immediate baseload power. Nuclear takes too long to build. Therefore, Natural Gas demand will spike as the only viable bridge fuel for data centers in the medium term. LONG. A mild winter or continued renewable oversupply could suppress gas prices in the short term.
UNG LONG
EQT LONG
medium-term
"More traders tried to front run [SPUT] than Sput actually had pounds to buy... That runs the price up... then Sput's only buying 3 million pounds. The other 7 million get sold off." The recent crash in uranium spot prices was a liquidity event caused by failed speculation, not a change in fundamentals. This washout provides a better entry point for the long-term structural deficit thesis. LONG. Further liquidation in Gold could force margin selling in Uranium assets (contagion risk).
URA LONG
CCJ LONG
long-term
"The option surface... there is a distinct right tail skew where upside calls price rich volatility relative to the downside." Despite bearish headlines, the market structure is pricing in upside risk. A bull call spread allows participation in a rally to the $70s while defining risk if the market remains rangebound or drops. LONG (via Bull Call Spread or defined risk exposure). A de-escalation of geopolitical tension could send WTI toward $55.
USO LONG
short-term
"This was a super easy to see coming technical correction... I don't think this is the big one [end of bull market]... My 55% likely base case scenario is that we'll consolidate here for several weeks." The parabolic move required a correction to clear sentiment. While the long-term bull case remains, the immediate technical damage suggests a period of consolidation or a retest of lower supports (50-day MA) before buying is safe. WATCH (Wait for consolidation/base building). If the dollar rally accelerates significantly, Gold could break the 100-day moving average.
GLD WATCH
short-term
"We are going to see massive retirement in the fleet because many tankers kept alive because of the sanctions... are 25 years old." The "Dark Fleet" has artificially kept shipping supply high. As these vessels are scrapped due to age or relaxed sanctions (making them uninsurable/illegal), the supply of available tankers will crash, driving up charter rates for legitimate, publicly traded tanker companies. LONG (Crude and Product Tankers). A global recession reducing overall oil demand could dampen charter rates despite lower vessel supply.
TNK NEUTRAL
FRO NEUTRAL
STNG NEUTRAL
medium-term
18:31
Feb 05
Feb 05
Macro Voices
3mo
IGV 1ST
QQQ 1ST
UUP
GLD
CCJ 1ST
▾
The Tech Software ETF (IGV) has crashed 30%, breaking all support lines. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has broken December/January lows and closed below the 50-day moving average. The "Mag 7" earnings generally disappointed, removing the tailwind for the S&P 500. With the 50-day moving average breached, systematic funds (CTAs/Vol Control) are triggered to sell, creating a liquidity vacuum. The market is "highly vulnerable" to a 10%+ correction. The breakdown in software is a leading indicator for the broader tech indices. A sudden reversal in liquidity conditions or unexpected positive macro data could trigger a short squeeze.
IGV SHORT
QQQ SHORT
short-term
The US Dollar is bouncing off a lower low and approaching a key resistance zone at 97-98 (previous support). This level is the "tell." If the Dollar fails at 97-98, the bear market resumes. If it breaks above, the Q1 weak dollar thesis is neutralized. Watch the 97-98 level on the DXY (UUP proxy) to determine the next directional trade. Headline risk regarding Fed Chair nominations is driving volatility, overriding technicals.
UUP WATCH
short-term
Gold experienced a parabolic blowoff top followed by a $1,200 correction. It is currently struggling to hold the 50% retracement level. Parabolic moves usually result in deep corrections and long consolidation periods. The market needs to "shake off" the overbought technicals. While the long-term bull market is intact, the short-term probability favors a retest of lower lows (around the 50-day MA) and a multi-month consolidation. Buying now is catching a falling knife. A rapid realization that the new Fed nominee (Warsh) is dovish could trigger an immediate reversal to new highs (10% probability).
GLD NEUTRAL
medium-term
Uranium spot prices dropped sharply from near $100 to the low $90s despite strong long-term fundamentals. This drop was caused by traders trying to "front-run" a known purchase by the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT). There were more speculative sellers than SPUT had capital to buy, causing a liquidity flush. This is a technical washout, not a fundamental change. Eric explicitly stated he "added to Cameco (CCJ) longs" at $110.85 during the dip. Continued liquidation in the Gold market could trigger margin calls that force investors to sell liquid assets like Uranium stocks (contagion risk).
CCJ LONG
medium-term
WTI Crude options show a "distinct right tail skew" where upside calls are expensive relative to downside puts. The market is rangebound in the $60s but carries significant geopolitical headline risk. Instead of buying flat futures (delta 1) which are subject to whipsaws, one can use the skew to finance a position. By buying lower IV in-the-money calls and selling higher IV out-of-the-money calls, you create a position that profits even if oil stays flat, but captures upside if a geopolitical event occurs. Patrick suggests a Bull Call Spread (specifically referencing April 2026 contracts). For the general investor, this translates to a tactical long position with defined risk. A de-escalation of geopolitical tension could send WTI down to $55.
USO LONG
short-term (approx. 6 weeks)
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